Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by June's downwardly revised gain of just 20,000 nonfarm payrolls and persistent weakness in private-sector hiring, has driven trader consensus toward a July decline. Cooling demand in retail, local government education, and manufacturing—coupled with broader economic indicators such as subdued consumer spending and elevated policy uncertainty—supports the market-implied odds of negative job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey data, showing average monthly gains slowing sharply through mid-2026, reinforces this positioning. While benchmark revisions or unexpected seasonal adjustments could theoretically alter the final tally, the scale of recent deceleration makes a positive surprise unlikely absent major data corrections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於<0 100.0%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
100k – 150k <1%
$38,171 交易量
$38,171 交易量
<0
Yes
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
No
200k+
No
<0 100.0%
0 – 50k <1%
50k – 100k <1%
100k – 150k <1%
$38,171 交易量
$38,171 交易量
<0
Yes
0 – 50k
No
50k – 100k
No
100k – 150k
No
150k – 200k
No
200k+
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Recent softening in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by June's downwardly revised gain of just 20,000 nonfarm payrolls and persistent weakness in private-sector hiring, has driven trader consensus toward a July decline. Cooling demand in retail, local government education, and manufacturing—coupled with broader economic indicators such as subdued consumer spending and elevated policy uncertainty—supports the market-implied odds of negative job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' establishment survey data, showing average monthly gains slowing sharply through mid-2026, reinforces this positioning. While benchmark revisions or unexpected seasonal adjustments could theoretically alter the final tally, the scale of recent deceleration makes a positive surprise unlikely absent major data corrections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions