Houthis' October 14, 2026, announcement ending attacks on commercial shipping through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait marks the primary catalyst shifting trader sentiment, following leadership losses from airstrikes and territorial reversals near key chokepoints. This development coincides with selective resumption of Asia-Europe container services via Suez by carriers including MSC and Maersk, easing prior diversions around the Cape of Good Hope that had inflated freight rates and war-risk premiums. Oil transit volumes through the strait, which had fallen over 50% from 2023 peaks amid earlier disruptions, stand to recover alongside Suez Canal Authority revenues that previously declined sharply. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty, as any collapse in Gaza-related ceasefires or renewed Houthi leadership pressure could prompt resumption, while current selective transits and insurance market stabilization signal reduced near-term targeting risk.