Escalating clashes along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, where Houthi forces captured Mocha and Bab el-Mandeb positions in September before Saudi-backed government troops retook key ground in early October, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment. These territorial swings heighten risks to Saudi crude exports rerouted via the East-West pipeline and Yanbu, supporting Brent near $105 per barrel amid war-risk premiums. However, while Houthis have conducted missile and drone strikes on tankers and Aramco facilities, no verified seizures of oil-laden vessels have occurred recently, keeping implied probabilities for near-term resolution windows below 5 percent and October 31 around 28 percent. Traders price in the gap between Houthi leverage over shipping lanes and the operational hurdles of actual interdiction, with ongoing strikes on Saudi infrastructure and any fresh Houthi advances as key swing factors.