Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月18日華沙的最高溫度？
7月18日華沙的最高溫度？
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,770 交易量
$57,770 交易量
2026-07-18
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
否
25°C
否
26°C
是
27°C
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C 或更高
否
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$57,770 交易量
$57,770 交易量
2026-07-18
22°C or below
$1,020 交易量
No
23°C
$5,671 交易量
No
24°C
$5,252 交易量
否
25°C
$7,724 交易量
否
26°C
$13,535 交易量
是
27°C
$9,071 交易量
否
28°C
$7,023 交易量
否
29°C
$4,676 交易量
否
30°C
$3,443 交易量
否
31°C
$127 交易量
否
32°C 或更高
$227 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
交易量
$57,770結束日期
2026-07-18市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$57,770結束日期
2026-07-18市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 1:04 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Current ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and local IMGW models indicate a moderating Atlantic air mass will limit Warsaw’s July 18 maximum to the 24–26 °C range, with thundery showers possible during peak heating hours that reduce insolation and cap afternoon temperatures. This follows a late-June heatwave that produced Poland’s all-time record of 40.5 °C but has since yielded to cooler-than-average July conditions across central Europe. Traders have concentrated probability on 25–26 °C outcomes because model runs show modest uncertainty around cloud cover and convective timing, while higher thresholds remain low-probability given the post-heatwave pattern and typical July climatology of 24–25 °C. Updated model guidance and IMGW morning observations on July 17 will provide the next key data points before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions