Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 27 6.9%
$35,819 交易量
$35,819 交易量
2026-05-31
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
2%
May 8
8%
May 9
1%
May 10
3%
May 11
3%
May 12
7%
May 13
6%
May 14
5%
May 15
2%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
4%
May 19
34%
May 20
5%
May 21
3%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
7%
May 28
<1%
May 29
1%
May 30
2%
May 31
1%
No release by May 31
31%
May 19 34%
No release by May 31 31%
May 12 7%
May 27 6.9%
$35,819 交易量
$35,819 交易量
2026-05-31
On or prior to May 6
$1,428 交易量
<1%
May 7
$788 交易量
2%
May 8
$499 交易量
8%
May 9
$2,773 交易量
1%
May 10
$2,853 交易量
3%
May 11
$554 交易量
3%
May 12
$567 交易量
7%
May 13
$604 交易量
6%
May 14
$526 交易量
5%
May 15
$524 交易量
2%
May 16
$2,806 交易量
<1%
May 17
$2,818 交易量
1%
May 18
$752 交易量
4%
May 19
$1,292 交易量
34%
May 20
$857 交易量
5%
May 21
$791 交易量
3%
May 22
$771 交易量
2%
May 23
$2,581 交易量
<1%
May 24
$2,626 交易量
1%
May 25
$596 交易量
3%
May 26
$601 交易量
1%
May 27
$586 交易量
7%
May 28
$586 交易量
<1%
May 29
$611 交易量
1%
May 30
$2,995 交易量
2%
May 31
$2,762 交易量
1%
No release by May 31
$673 交易量
31%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
交易量
$35,819結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$35,819結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty around Google's Gemini 3.2 large language model release, with May 19 implied at 33.5% edging out "No release by May 31" at 31.0%, driven by anticipation for Google I/O on May 19-20 where major AI advancements are expected amid leaks hinting at Gemini 3.2 Omni variants. Recent minor updates, like the May 7 general availability of Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite, underscore Google's iterative rollout but no confirmed 3.2 preview, fueling doubt on timelines amid competitive pressures from OpenAI's GPT-5 rumors and Anthropic's Claude 4 benchmarks. Key differentiators include demonstrated multimodal reasoning gains; a post-I/O delay or skip to 3.5 could shift odds toward "No," while an on-stage demo might solidify May dates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions