The closely matched market-implied odds for the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market—Other at 48% versus Pause–Pause–Pause at 42.5%—reflect trader uncertainty over whether the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the September and October meetings or deliver at least one 25-basis-point hike. The July 29 decision to hold rates drew three dissents favoring a tightening move amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, resilient 4.1–4.2% unemployment, solid GDP growth, and energy-price pressures from Middle East developments. Futures markets currently embed expectations of rates near 4% by year-end, while incoming inflation prints, labor data, and the September FOMC statement remain the key swing factors that could shift consensus on the near-term policy path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Other 48%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
$667,193 交易量
$667,193 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
48%
Other 48%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.7%
$667,193 交易量
$667,193 交易量
2026-10-28
Pause–Pause–Pause
$225,781 交易量
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$51,177 交易量
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$31,993 交易量
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$24,297 交易量
<1%
Other
$290,459 交易量
48%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely matched market-implied odds for the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market—Other at 48% versus Pause–Pause–Pause at 42.5%—reflect trader uncertainty over whether the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the September and October meetings or deliver at least one 25-basis-point hike. The July 29 decision to hold rates drew three dissents favoring a tightening move amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, resilient 4.1–4.2% unemployment, solid GDP growth, and energy-price pressures from Middle East developments. Futures markets currently embed expectations of rates near 4% by year-end, while incoming inflation prints, labor data, and the September FOMC statement remain the key swing factors that could shift consensus on the near-term policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
交易量
$667,193結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely matched market-implied odds for the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market—Other at 48% versus Pause–Pause–Pause at 42.5%—reflect trader uncertainty over whether the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the September and October meetings or deliver at least one 25-basis-point hike. The July 29 decision to hold rates drew three dissents favoring a tightening move amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, resilient 4.1–4.2% unemployment, solid GDP growth, and energy-price pressures from Middle East developments. Futures markets currently embed expectations of rates near 4% by year-end, while incoming inflation prints, labor data, and the September FOMC statement remain the key swing factors that could shift consensus on the near-term policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$667,193結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds for the Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) market—Other at 48% versus Pause–Pause–Pause at 42.5%—reflect trader uncertainty over whether the FOMC will maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% through the September and October meetings or deliver at least one 25-basis-point hike. The July 29 decision to hold rates drew three dissents favoring a tightening move amid June CPI at 3.5% year-over-year, resilient 4.1–4.2% unemployment, solid GDP growth, and energy-price pressures from Middle East developments. Futures markets currently embed expectations of rates near 4% by year-end, while incoming inflation prints, labor data, and the September FOMC statement remain the key swing factors that could shift consensus on the near-term policy path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions