Recent moderation in June core CPI to 2.6% year-over-year alongside headline readings near 3.5%, combined with a stable labor market, has reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, where the federal funds target currently sits at 3.50-3.75%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike—support the 23.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase, while the low odds on cuts reflect limited evidence of disinflation sufficient to ease policy. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變化 68%
上調25個基點 24%
下調25個基點 7%
上調50個基點以上 2.1%
$521,383 交易量
$521,383 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
1%
下調25個基點
7%
無變化
68%
上調25個基點
24%
上調50個基點以上
2%
無變化 68%
上調25個基點 24%
下調25個基點 7%
上調50個基點以上 2.1%
$521,383 交易量
$521,383 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
$118,414 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$127,538 交易量
7%
無變化
$109,258 交易量
68%
上調25個基點
$123,057 交易量
24%
上調50個基點以上
$43,116 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in June core CPI to 2.6% year-over-year alongside headline readings near 3.5%, combined with a stable labor market, has reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, where the federal funds target currently sits at 3.50-3.75%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike—support the 23.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase, while the low odds on cuts reflect limited evidence of disinflation sufficient to ease policy. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$521,383結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent moderation in June core CPI to 2.6% year-over-year alongside headline readings near 3.5%, combined with a stable labor market, has reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, where the federal funds target currently sits at 3.50-3.75%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike—support the 23.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase, while the low odds on cuts reflect limited evidence of disinflation sufficient to ease policy. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$521,383結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in June core CPI to 2.6% year-over-year alongside headline readings near 3.5%, combined with a stable labor market, has reinforced trader expectations for no change at the Fed’s October 27-28 meeting, where the federal funds target currently sits at 3.50-3.75%. Persistent energy price pressures from Middle East developments and a divided July FOMC—with three dissents favoring a hike—support the 23.5% implied probability of a 25 basis point increase, while the low odds on cuts reflect limited evidence of disinflation sufficient to ease policy. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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