Polymarket traders price Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in a tight contest between the 0-1.0% (27.9% implied probability) and 1.0-2.0% (27.5%) bins, reflecting aggregated sentiment for subdued expansion amid downward revisions from authoritative sources. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook slashed its forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%, citing Middle East conflict escalation and energy price pressures, while ECB staff projections from March pegged 2026 growth at 0.9%—a 0.3 percentage point cut—following 1.4% expansion in 2025. Key differentiators include Q1 2026 GDP trajectory (flash estimate due April 29), ECB monetary policy easing pace amid sticky inflation above 2%, and geopolitical risks to trade and industrial output; stronger-than-expected quarterly data or de-escalation could tilt odds toward 1-2%, while persistent shocks favor sub-1%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.0-2.0% 45%
2.0-3.0% 18%
4.0-5.0% 16.7%
0-1.0% 13.1%
低於0%
10%
0-1.0%
28%
1.0-2.0%
38%
2.0-3.0%
18%
3.0-4.0%
11%
4.0-5.0%
12%
5.0-6.0%
5%
6.0-7.0%
4%
7.0%以上
11%
1.0-2.0% 45%
2.0-3.0% 18%
4.0-5.0% 16.7%
0-1.0% 13.1%
低於0%
10%
0-1.0%
28%
1.0-2.0%
38%
2.0-3.0%
18%
3.0-4.0%
11%
4.0-5.0%
12%
5.0-6.0%
5%
6.0-7.0%
4%
7.0%以上
11%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in a tight contest between the 0-1.0% (27.9% implied probability) and 1.0-2.0% (27.5%) bins, reflecting aggregated sentiment for subdued expansion amid downward revisions from authoritative sources. The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook slashed its forecast to 1.1% from 1.4%, citing Middle East conflict escalation and energy price pressures, while ECB staff projections from March pegged 2026 growth at 0.9%—a 0.3 percentage point cut—following 1.4% expansion in 2025. Key differentiators include Q1 2026 GDP trajectory (flash estimate due April 29), ECB monetary policy easing pace amid sticky inflation above 2%, and geopolitical risks to trade and industrial output; stronger-than-expected quarterly data or de-escalation could tilt odds toward 1-2%, while persistent shocks favor sub-1%.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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