Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 交易量
$553,270 交易量
2026-08-17
少於40
是
40-64
否
65-89
否
90-114
否
115-139
否
140-164
否
165-189
否
190-214
否
215-239
否
240+
否
少於40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$553,270 交易量
$553,270 交易量
2026-08-17
少於40
$167,892 交易量
是
40-64
$113,852 交易量
否
65-89
$116,364 交易量
否
90-114
$69,008 交易量
否
115-139
$48,700 交易量
否
140-164
$16,923 交易量
否
165-189
$8,347 交易量
否
190-214
$3,264 交易量
否
215-239
$4,806 交易量
否
240+
$4,113 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$553,270結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 15 12:00 PM ET to August 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$553,270結束日期
2026-08-17市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 12:07 PM ET已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
Elon Musk's restrained posting volume over August 15–17 has cemented trader consensus around the <40 outcome at full implied probability. Recent X activity shows selective engagement tied to SpaceX milestones, Grok updates, and occasional replies rather than sustained threads or high-frequency commentary, reflecting typical patterns when launch schedules and operational demands dominate his schedule. Historical data on his daily output—often spiking during product announcements or controversies but dropping amid travel or focused work—supports the market's strong positioning. An upset above 40 would require an unexpected surge in replies, memes, or real-time commentary in the final hours, a scenario traders view as unlikely given the current cadence and period's proximity to resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions