Recent economic data and ECB communications have reinforced trader expectations for no policy change at the October 29 meeting. A Reuters poll of economists showed near-unanimous forecasts for a hold on the 2.50% deposit rate, citing anchored medium-term inflation expectations and limited pass-through from energy-driven headline inflation pressures linked to Middle East conflicts. Policymakers have emphasized data dependence and benign underlying trends, aligning with market pricing. This consensus reflects the Governing Council’s meeting-by-meeting approach after two 2026 hikes. A sharper escalation in energy costs or unexpectedly persistent core inflation readings could still prompt reconsideration before the decision.