Multiple 2026 Senate races remain within a few points in recent polling aggregates, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and the Ohio special election each showing margins under 3 points in late surveys. Open seats, retiring incumbents, and strong challengers in states such as Texas and Iowa have narrowed historical gaps, while candidate recruitment and national midterm dynamics keep several contests statistically tied. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these battlegrounds because current polling averages and fundamentals point to multiple races finishing within 1-2 points, with no single contest clearly separating yet. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns, or campaign events before November 3 could consolidate sentiment around one state.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Texas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$39,746 交易量
$39,746 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
15%
Iowa
14%
Michigan
11%
Alaska
11%
Nebraska
10%
Ohio (Special)
9%
Maine
9%
North Carolina
6%
New Hampshire
4%
Virginia
3%
Florida (Special)
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 15%
Iowa 14.1%
Michigan 10.7%
Alaska 11%
$39,746 交易量
$39,746 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$1,876 交易量
15%
Iowa
$3,287 交易量
14%
Michigan
$2,998 交易量
11%
Alaska
$7,695 交易量
11%
Nebraska
$1,564 交易量
10%
Ohio (Special)
$8,979 交易量
9%
Maine
$1,398 交易量
9%
North Carolina
$871 交易量
6%
New Hampshire
$788 交易量
4%
Virginia
$5,073 交易量
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 交易量
2%
Georgia
$824 交易量
2%
New Mexico
$160 交易量
2%
Minnesota
$1,494 交易量
1%
Montana
$1,383 交易量
1%
Colorado
$1,103 交易量
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple 2026 Senate races remain within a few points in recent polling aggregates, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and the Ohio special election each showing margins under 3 points in late surveys. Open seats, retiring incumbents, and strong challengers in states such as Texas and Iowa have narrowed historical gaps, while candidate recruitment and national midterm dynamics keep several contests statistically tied. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these battlegrounds because current polling averages and fundamentals point to multiple races finishing within 1-2 points, with no single contest clearly separating yet. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns, or campaign events before November 3 could consolidate sentiment around one state.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$39,746結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple 2026 Senate races remain within a few points in recent polling aggregates, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and the Ohio special election each showing margins under 3 points in late surveys. Open seats, retiring incumbents, and strong challengers in states such as Texas and Iowa have narrowed historical gaps, while candidate recruitment and national midterm dynamics keep several contests statistically tied. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these battlegrounds because current polling averages and fundamentals point to multiple races finishing within 1-2 points, with no single contest clearly separating yet. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns, or campaign events before November 3 could consolidate sentiment around one state.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$39,746結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETMultiple 2026 Senate races remain within a few points in recent polling aggregates, with Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Maine, and the Ohio special election each showing margins under 3 points in late surveys. Open seats, retiring incumbents, and strong challengers in states such as Texas and Iowa have narrowed historical gaps, while candidate recruitment and national midterm dynamics keep several contests statistically tied. Traders assign the highest probabilities to these battlegrounds because current polling averages and fundamentals point to multiple races finishing within 1-2 points, with no single contest clearly separating yet. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout patterns, or campaign events before November 3 could consolidate sentiment around one state.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions