China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment for the Q3 print, with the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands holding 88.5% combined implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued consumption, and the lingering property-sector drag have offset resilient manufacturing and export performance, while July PMIs showed manufacturing near contraction territory. Analysts’ full-year forecasts cluster around 4.5-4.7%, consistent with the official 4.5-5% target and recent H1 growth of 4.7%. Expectations for incremental fiscal support ahead of the October data release reinforce the market’s concentration in the 4.3-4.9% range, though further downside surprises in retail sales or fixed-asset investment could widen probabilities for lower outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 5.9%
4.9-5.2% 3.1%
$17,613 交易量
$17,613 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
2%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
6%
4.3-4.6%
55%
4.6-4.9%
34%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
1%
5.5%+
2%
4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 5.9%
4.9-5.2% 3.1%
$17,613 交易量
$17,613 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
$638 交易量
2%
3.4-3.7%
$390 交易量
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$433 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,074 交易量
6%
4.3-4.6%
$4,633 交易量
55%
4.6-4.9%
$7,197 交易量
34%
4.9-5.2%
$2,166 交易量
3%
5.2-5.5%
$390 交易量
1%
5.5%+
$691 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment for the Q3 print, with the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands holding 88.5% combined implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued consumption, and the lingering property-sector drag have offset resilient manufacturing and export performance, while July PMIs showed manufacturing near contraction territory. Analysts’ full-year forecasts cluster around 4.5-4.7%, consistent with the official 4.5-5% target and recent H1 growth of 4.7%. Expectations for incremental fiscal support ahead of the October data release reinforce the market’s concentration in the 4.3-4.9% range, though further downside surprises in retail sales or fixed-asset investment could widen probabilities for lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$17,613結束日期
2026-10-20市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment for the Q3 print, with the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands holding 88.5% combined implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued consumption, and the lingering property-sector drag have offset resilient manufacturing and export performance, while July PMIs showed manufacturing near contraction territory. Analysts’ full-year forecasts cluster around 4.5-4.7%, consistent with the official 4.5-5% target and recent H1 growth of 4.7%. Expectations for incremental fiscal support ahead of the October data release reinforce the market’s concentration in the 4.3-4.9% range, though further downside surprises in retail sales or fixed-asset investment could widen probabilities for lower outcomes.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$17,613結束日期
2026-10-20市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year—the weakest pace in over three years—has anchored trader sentiment for the Q3 print, with the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands holding 88.5% combined implied probability. Soft domestic demand, subdued consumption, and the lingering property-sector drag have offset resilient manufacturing and export performance, while July PMIs showed manufacturing near contraction territory. Analysts’ full-year forecasts cluster around 4.5-4.7%, consistent with the official 4.5-5% target and recent H1 growth of 4.7%. Expectations for incremental fiscal support ahead of the October data release reinforce the market’s concentration in the 4.3-4.9% range, though further downside surprises in retail sales or fixed-asset investment could widen probabilities for lower outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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