Lula's position as the clear market favorite to finish first in Tocantins reflects traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage, established PT organizational networks in northern states, and consistent polling leads or ties in the region ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August surveys in Tocantins showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro essentially even at 36% each, with Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos trailing in single digits, while national aggregates continue to register a tight contest between the two frontrunners. The low prices on other listed candidates align with their minimal statewide support in available data, and the elevated implied probabilities on fringe names capture the possibility of late shifts or low turnout effects in a small electorate. No major campaign events or legal rulings have altered the Tocantins picture in the past week, leaving the race sensitive to final mobilization and any national momentum swings before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧拉 69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 32%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔 <1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里 <1%
$22,731 交易量
$22,731 交易量
2026-10-04
盧拉
69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
32%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
<1%
巴布羅·馬沙爾
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
羅納多·卡亞多
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
澤馬
<1%
克拉里亞娜·巴拉奧
<1%
莎馬拉
<1%
獸醫威爾森·格拉西
<1%
盧拉 69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 32%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔 <1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里 <1%
$22,731 交易量
$22,731 交易量
2026-10-04
盧拉
$5,799 交易量
69%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
$10,807 交易量
32%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔
$542 交易量
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
$575 交易量
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
$342 交易量
<1%
巴布羅·馬沙爾
$1,256 交易量
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
$406 交易量
<1%
羅納多·卡亞多
$438 交易量
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$601 交易量
<1%
澤馬
$448 交易量
<1%
克拉里亞娜·巴拉奧
$558 交易量
<1%
莎馬拉
$432 交易量
<1%
獸醫威爾森·格拉西
$527 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as the clear market favorite to finish first in Tocantins reflects traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage, established PT organizational networks in northern states, and consistent polling leads or ties in the region ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August surveys in Tocantins showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro essentially even at 36% each, with Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos trailing in single digits, while national aggregates continue to register a tight contest between the two frontrunners. The low prices on other listed candidates align with their minimal statewide support in available data, and the elevated implied probabilities on fringe names capture the possibility of late shifts or low turnout effects in a small electorate. No major campaign events or legal rulings have altered the Tocantins picture in the past week, leaving the race sensitive to final mobilization and any national momentum swings before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
交易量
$22,731結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as the clear market favorite to finish first in Tocantins reflects traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage, established PT organizational networks in northern states, and consistent polling leads or ties in the region ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August surveys in Tocantins showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro essentially even at 36% each, with Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos trailing in single digits, while national aggregates continue to register a tight contest between the two frontrunners. The low prices on other listed candidates align with their minimal statewide support in available data, and the elevated implied probabilities on fringe names capture the possibility of late shifts or low turnout effects in a small electorate. No major campaign events or legal rulings have altered the Tocantins picture in the past week, leaving the race sensitive to final mobilization and any national momentum swings before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$22,731結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETLula's position as the clear market favorite to finish first in Tocantins reflects traders' assessment of his incumbency advantage, established PT organizational networks in northern states, and consistent polling leads or ties in the region ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent August surveys in Tocantins showed Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro essentially even at 36% each, with Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos trailing in single digits, while national aggregates continue to register a tight contest between the two frontrunners. The low prices on other listed candidates align with their minimal statewide support in available data, and the elevated implied probabilities on fringe names capture the possibility of late shifts or low turnout effects in a small electorate. No major campaign events or legal rulings have altered the Tocantins picture in the past week, leaving the race sensitive to final mobilization and any national momentum swings before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions