Recent polling in São Paulo state shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round presidential voting intentions, with Flávio at 31–37% and Lula at 30–33% in surveys released September 8. This positioning reflects São Paulo’s large conservative electorate, alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Flávio’s recent campaign events in the state, including an Independence Day rally focused on judicial issues. Other candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit support. With the October 4 first round approaching, trader consensus assigns Flávio an 88.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, consistent with the latest local samples and São Paulo’s historical voting patterns favoring right-leaning presidential contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於弗拉維奧·博索納羅 89%
魯拉 6.2%
Samara 1.0%
雷南·桑托斯 <1%
$22,636 交易量
$22,636 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
89%
魯拉
6%
Samara
1%
雷南·桑托斯
1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
<1%
帕布羅·馬薩爾
<1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
<1%
克拉麗安娜·巴拉奧
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
<1%
澤馬
<1%
艾德米爾森·科斯塔
<1%
羅納爾多·蓋亞多
<1%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 89%
魯拉 6.2%
Samara 1.0%
雷南·桑托斯 <1%
$22,636 交易量
$22,636 交易量
2026-10-04
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
$6,911 交易量
89%
魯拉
$8,283 交易量
6%
Samara
$423 交易量
1%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,360 交易量
1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
$543 交易量
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
$714 交易量
<1%
帕布羅·馬薩爾
$1,189 交易量
<1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
$503 交易量
<1%
克拉麗安娜·巴拉奧
$502 交易量
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
$497 交易量
<1%
澤馬
$693 交易量
<1%
艾德米爾森·科斯塔
$502 交易量
<1%
羅納爾多·蓋亞多
$517 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in São Paulo state shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round presidential voting intentions, with Flávio at 31–37% and Lula at 30–33% in surveys released September 8. This positioning reflects São Paulo’s large conservative electorate, alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Flávio’s recent campaign events in the state, including an Independence Day rally focused on judicial issues. Other candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit support. With the October 4 first round approaching, trader consensus assigns Flávio an 88.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, consistent with the latest local samples and São Paulo’s historical voting patterns favoring right-leaning presidential contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
交易量
$22,636結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in São Paulo state shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round presidential voting intentions, with Flávio at 31–37% and Lula at 30–33% in surveys released September 8. This positioning reflects São Paulo’s large conservative electorate, alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Flávio’s recent campaign events in the state, including an Independence Day rally focused on judicial issues. Other candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit support. With the October 4 first round approaching, trader consensus assigns Flávio an 88.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, consistent with the latest local samples and São Paulo’s historical voting patterns favoring right-leaning presidential contenders.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$22,636結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRecent polling in São Paulo state shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with President Lula (PT) in first-round presidential voting intentions, with Flávio at 31–37% and Lula at 30–33% in surveys released September 8. This positioning reflects São Paulo’s large conservative electorate, alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, and Flávio’s recent campaign events in the state, including an Independence Day rally focused on judicial issues. Other candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos register single-digit support. With the October 4 first round approaching, trader consensus assigns Flávio an 88.5% implied probability of finishing first in the state, consistent with the latest local samples and São Paulo’s historical voting patterns favoring right-leaning presidential contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions