Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Flavio Bolsonaro 97.9%
Lula <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
雷南·桑托斯 <1%
$16,493 交易量
$16,493 交易量
2026-10-04
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Lula
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
雷南·桑托斯
1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
1%
薩瑪拉
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
<1%
澤馬
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.9%
Lula <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
雷南·桑托斯 <1%
$16,493 交易量
$16,493 交易量
2026-10-04
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,929 交易量
98%
Lula
$663 交易量
1%
Edmilson Costa
$490 交易量
1%
雷南·桑托斯
$490 交易量
1%
魯伊·科斯塔·皮門塔
$560 交易量
1%
薩瑪拉
$580 交易量
1%
Pablo Marçal
$621 交易量
1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
$539 交易量
1%
Clariana Barao
$480 交易量
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$530 交易量
<1%
Hertz Dias
$550 交易量
<1%
羅納爾多·卡亞多
$535 交易量
<1%
澤馬
$525 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
交易量
$16,493結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$16,493結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETFlávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia first-round polling, with recent surveys from Veritá and Real Time Big Data placing him at 57-58% against Lula’s 25%, consistent with the state’s strong conservative alignment and 2022 voting patterns favoring the Liberal Party and Jair Bolsonaro’s base. Traders have priced this dominance at 98.1% implied probability, reflecting the limited fragmentation among other candidates and the absence of major late shifts in the northern state’s electorate ahead of the October 4 vote. A substantial polling margin leaves little room for reversal, though unusually high abstention or an unforeseen consolidation behind a secondary contender could theoretically narrow the gap before ballots close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions