Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
gemini-3-pro <1%
$33,061 交易量
$33,061 交易量
2026-05-16
claude-opus-4-6
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3-pro
No
gpt-5.5-high
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
muse-spark
No
Other
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
claude-opus-4-7
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
gemini-3-pro <1%
$33,061 交易量
$33,061 交易量
2026-05-16
claude-opus-4-6
$3,181 交易量
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$5,233 交易量
No
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 交易量
No
gpt-5.5-high
$2,605 交易量
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$9,522 交易量
Yes
muse-spark
$1,218 交易量
No
Other
$3,813 交易量
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 交易量
No
claude-opus-4-7
$4,863 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$33,061結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$33,061結束日期
2026-05-16市場開放時間
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: Yes
無爭議
最終結果: Yes
Anthropic’s February 2026 launch of Claude Opus 4.6 with adaptive thinking mode has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the claude-opus-4-6-thinking outcome, as the model’s ability to dynamically allocate reasoning depth has produced leading results on complex coding benchmarks and long-running agentic tasks. Recent third-party evaluations continue to highlight its edge in instruction following and multi-step problem solving relative to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, reinforcing the current market-implied odds near 100 percent. While this positioning appears durable, a major capability jump from a competing frontier model or an unexpected deprecation announcement could still shift sentiment before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions