Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points in the mid-teens to low twenties, leaving no party with a consistent edge for second place behind the likely leading CDU. This fragmentation, driven by shifting voter preferences and the CDU-SPD coalition’s mixed record, has kept implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top contenders. Trader consensus prices reflect the narrow spreads in polling averages, with limited separation expected absent major late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among specific demographics or decisive campaign events. The September 20 vote, including first-time participation by 16-year-olds under updated rules, will determine final seat rankings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於CDU 37%
德國另類選擇黨（AfD） 29%
Linke 23%
綠黨 10%
$27,288 交易量
$27,288 交易量
2026-09-20
CDU
37%
德國另類選擇黨（AfD）
29%
Linke
23%
綠黨
10%
社民黨
3%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
CDU 37%
德國另類選擇黨（AfD） 29%
Linke 23%
綠黨 10%
$27,288 交易量
$27,288 交易量
2026-09-20
CDU
$3,382 交易量
37%
德國另類選擇黨（AfD）
$6,704 交易量
29%
Linke
$5,964 交易量
23%
綠黨
$5,603 交易量
10%
社民黨
$3,526 交易量
3%
FDP
$686 交易量
<1%
FW
$640 交易量
<1%
BSW
$783 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points in the mid-teens to low twenties, leaving no party with a consistent edge for second place behind the likely leading CDU. This fragmentation, driven by shifting voter preferences and the CDU-SPD coalition’s mixed record, has kept implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top contenders. Trader consensus prices reflect the narrow spreads in polling averages, with limited separation expected absent major late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among specific demographics or decisive campaign events. The September 20 vote, including first-time participation by 16-year-olds under updated rules, will determine final seat rankings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
交易量
$27,288結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points in the mid-teens to low twenties, leaving no party with a consistent edge for second place behind the likely leading CDU. This fragmentation, driven by shifting voter preferences and the CDU-SPD coalition’s mixed record, has kept implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top contenders. Trader consensus prices reflect the narrow spreads in polling averages, with limited separation expected absent major late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among specific demographics or decisive campaign events. The September 20 vote, including first-time participation by 16-year-olds under updated rules, will determine final seat rankings.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$27,288結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETRecent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show CDU, Linke, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points in the mid-teens to low twenties, leaving no party with a consistent edge for second place behind the likely leading CDU. This fragmentation, driven by shifting voter preferences and the CDU-SPD coalition’s mixed record, has kept implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top contenders. Trader consensus prices reflect the narrow spreads in polling averages, with limited separation expected absent major late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among specific demographics or decisive campaign events. The September 20 vote, including first-time participation by 16-year-olds under updated rules, will determine final seat rankings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions