Market-implied odds heavily favor a 25 basis point Selic cut at the November 4 Copom meeting, driven by Brazil’s ongoing gradual easing cycle amid cooling domestic demand and inflation data. The central bank delivered its fifth consecutive 25 bp reduction in September to 13.75%, keeping the door open for further calibrated moves while noting decelerating underlying inflation measures and a moderation in cyclical activity. September IPCA rose 0.82% month-over-month to 4.58% year-over-year—above the 3% target but consistent with projections of convergence over the policy horizon—while Focus and Febraban surveys show median economist expectations for a year-end rate of 13.50%. External factors including U.S. rate hikes introduce caution, yet trader positioning reflects the central bank’s data-dependent path rather than a pause or larger adjustment.