**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於25 100.0%
25-29 <1%
30-34 <1%
35-39 <1%
$51,688 交易量
$51,688 交易量
2026-08-31
少於25
是
25-29
否
30-34
否
35-39
否
40+
否
少於25 100.0%
25-29 <1%
30-34 <1%
35-39 <1%
$51,688 交易量
$51,688 交易量
2026-08-31
少於25
$13,895 交易量
是
25-29
$14,144 交易量
否
30-34
$11,571 交易量
否
35-39
$5,459 交易量
否
40+
$6,619 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
交易量
$51,688結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算來源
IMF PortWatch已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$51,688結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET結算來源
IMF PortWatch已提議結果: 是
無爭議
最終結果: 是
**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions