The August 2026 CPI release, published September 11, delivered a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-over-month increase that precisely matched consensus forecasts, driving the market-implied probability for this outcome to 100%. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% and accounted for more than one-third of the headline move, while shelter advanced 0.3% and core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3%, in line with expectations and prior July readings of +0.1% headline and +0.2% core. Year-over-year inflation held steady at 3.4%, with the 12-month core rate easing to 2.4%. Traders priced in the exact print immediately upon confirmation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leaving negligible room for alternative outcomes. The next relevant data point is the September CPI release scheduled for October 14.