Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於佩爾托拉6–9% 100.0%
佩爾托拉15％以上 <1%
佩爾托拉12–15% <1%
佩爾托拉9–12% <1%
$23,457 交易量
$23,457 交易量
2026-08-18
佩爾托拉15％以上
否
佩爾托拉12–15%
否
佩爾托拉9–12%
否
佩爾托拉6–9%
是
佩爾托拉 3–6%
否
Peltola 少於 3%
否
沙利文少於3%
否
沙利文3–6%
否
Sullivan 6–9%
否
Sullivan 9–12%
否
Sullivan 12%+
否
佩爾托拉6–9% 100.0%
佩爾托拉15％以上 <1%
佩爾托拉12–15% <1%
佩爾托拉9–12% <1%
$23,457 交易量
$23,457 交易量
2026-08-18
佩爾托拉15％以上
$512 交易量
否
佩爾托拉12–15%
$525 交易量
否
佩爾托拉9–12%
$1,727 交易量
否
佩爾托拉6–9%
$3,534 交易量
是
佩爾托拉 3–6%
$12,363 交易量
否
Peltola 少於 3%
$1,363 交易量
否
沙利文少於3%
$809 交易量
否
沙利文3–6%
$1,137 交易量
否
Sullivan 6–9%
$657 交易量
否
Sullivan 9–12%
$387 交易量
否
Sullivan 12%+
$442 交易量
否
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$23,457結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$23,457結束日期
2026-08-18市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Mary Peltola’s commanding lead in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary has driven near-certain trader consensus on a 6–9 point margin of victory. With nearly all ballots counted by late August, the former U.S. representative held roughly 49.5 percent to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4 percent, a gap that widened modestly as absentee ballots were added and remained stable through final updates. Low single-digit support for a same-named Republican challenger and other minor candidates limited vote fragmentation, while Peltola’s stronger first-choice performance among the field of 16 contenders aligned with pre-election polling trends favoring her over the incumbent. Final certification and any residual ballot adjustments could still occur, though historical patterns and the absence of major late shifts make significant movement outside the 6–9 point range unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions