Polymarket traders assign a 50% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting consensus alignment with the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook projecting exactly 2.9% expansion, sustained by robust AI-driven technology investments amid moderating U.S. growth from 2.0% to 1.7%. Recent energy price surges from the Iran conflict and heightened geopolitical risks have erased prior upgrades, weakening sentiment versus the IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, while Conference Board and Goldman Sachs estimates cluster around 2.8-2.9%. Next week's IMF World Economic Outlook April release looms as a key catalyst, alongside ongoing trade tensions and inflation trajectories influencing rate paths.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於≤2.9% 34%
3.3% 19.6%
3.1% 16.5%
3.4% 15.4%
$14,462 交易量
$14,462 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
51%
3.0%
23%
3.1%
17%
3.2%
25%
3.3%
20%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
7%
3.6%
13%
3.7%以上
15%
≤2.9% 34%
3.3% 19.6%
3.1% 16.5%
3.4% 15.4%
$14,462 交易量
$14,462 交易量
2027-01-15
≤2.9%
$3,348 交易量
51%
3.0%
$293 交易量
23%
3.1%
$304 交易量
17%
3.2%
$1,481 交易量
25%
3.3%
$1,760 交易量
20%
3.4%
$3,331 交易量
8%
3.5%
$2,899 交易量
7%
3.6%
$410 交易量
13%
3.7%以上
$635 交易量
15%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 50% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting consensus alignment with the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook projecting exactly 2.9% expansion, sustained by robust AI-driven technology investments amid moderating U.S. growth from 2.0% to 1.7%. Recent energy price surges from the Iran conflict and heightened geopolitical risks have erased prior upgrades, weakening sentiment versus the IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, while Conference Board and Goldman Sachs estimates cluster around 2.8-2.9%. Next week's IMF World Economic Outlook April release looms as a key catalyst, alongside ongoing trade tensions and inflation trajectories influencing rate paths.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$14,462結束日期
2027-01-15市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 50% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting consensus alignment with the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook projecting exactly 2.9% expansion, sustained by robust AI-driven technology investments amid moderating U.S. growth from 2.0% to 1.7%. Recent energy price surges from the Iran conflict and heightened geopolitical risks have erased prior upgrades, weakening sentiment versus the IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, while Conference Board and Goldman Sachs estimates cluster around 2.8-2.9%. Next week's IMF World Economic Outlook April release looms as a key catalyst, alongside ongoing trade tensions and inflation trajectories influencing rate paths.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$14,462結束日期
2027-01-15市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 50% implied probability to 2026 world GDP growth at ≤2.9%, reflecting consensus alignment with the OECD's March 2026 Interim Economic Outlook projecting exactly 2.9% expansion, sustained by robust AI-driven technology investments amid moderating U.S. growth from 2.0% to 1.7%. Recent energy price surges from the Iran conflict and heightened geopolitical risks have erased prior upgrades, weakening sentiment versus the IMF's January forecast of 3.3%, while Conference Board and Goldman Sachs estimates cluster around 2.8-2.9%. Next week's IMF World Economic Outlook April release looms as a key catalyst, alongside ongoing trade tensions and inflation trajectories influencing rate paths.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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