Spain leads trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, a 31-match unbeaten streak (25 wins, 6 draws), and unmatched squad depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Nico Williams under Luis de la Fuente. March qualifiers concluded with Spain topping Group E for direct qualification alongside France, England, and others, solidifying their momentum amid FIFA president Gianni Infantino naming them favorites. Yet France (12.4%), England (12.3%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%) remain tightly bunched due to star power (Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, Vinícius Jr.), recent qualifier dominance, and the expanded 48-team format's knockout volatility, keeping the race wide-open two months out.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 16.4%
法國 12.4%
英格蘭 12.3%
阿根廷 9.3%
$453,097,286 交易量
$453,097,286 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
12%

英格蘭
12%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

日本
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

瑞士
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

AA隊
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

伊朗
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%
西班牙 16.4%
法國 12.4%
英格蘭 12.3%
阿根廷 9.3%
$453,097,286 交易量
$453,097,286 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
12%

英格蘭
12%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

日本
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

瑞士
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

AA隊
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

伊朗
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 triumph, a 31-match unbeaten streak (25 wins, 6 draws), and unmatched squad depth featuring Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri, and Nico Williams under Luis de la Fuente. March qualifiers concluded with Spain topping Group E for direct qualification alongside France, England, and others, solidifying their momentum amid FIFA president Gianni Infantino naming them favorites. Yet France (12.4%), England (12.3%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%) remain tightly bunched due to star power (Mbappé, Bellingham, Messi, Vinícius Jr.), recent qualifier dominance, and the expanded 48-team format's knockout volatility, keeping the race wide-open two months out.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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