Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their sustained dominance since Euro 2024 victory and top FIFA ranking, but the top five—Spain, France (13.5%), England (11.5%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%)—remain tightly clustered within seven points amid the expanded 48-team field's knockout volatility. Recent March international break friendlies, including France's resilient 2-1 win over Brazil despite a red card, elevated Les Bleus while exposing Brazil's injury woes with Rodrygo's ACL tear ruling him out and doubts over Neymar and Raphinha. UEFA playoffs concluding March 31 finalized the field with qualifiers like Turkey and Sweden, yet Europe's depth and South America's setbacks keep the race intensely competitive ahead of the June group stage draw impacts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 15.8%
法國 13.5%
英格蘭 11.5%
阿根廷 9.3%
$485,435,865 交易量
$485,435,865 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
13%

英格蘭
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

日本
2%

摩洛哥
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
1%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

厄瓜多
1%

土耳其
1%

塞內加爾
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
法國 13.5%
英格蘭 11.5%
阿根廷 9.3%
$485,435,865 交易量
$485,435,865 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
13%

英格蘭
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

日本
2%

摩洛哥
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
1%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

厄瓜多
1%

土耳其
1%

塞內加爾
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by their sustained dominance since Euro 2024 victory and top FIFA ranking, but the top five—Spain, France (13.5%), England (11.5%), Argentina (9.3%), and Brazil (8.6%)—remain tightly clustered within seven points amid the expanded 48-team field's knockout volatility. Recent March international break friendlies, including France's resilient 2-1 win over Brazil despite a red card, elevated Les Bleus while exposing Brazil's injury woes with Rodrygo's ACL tear ruling him out and doubts over Neymar and Raphinha. UEFA playoffs concluding March 31 finalized the field with qualifiers like Turkey and Sweden, yet Europe's depth and South America's setbacks keep the race intensely competitive ahead of the June group stage draw impacts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions