Traders see a tight race for second place among leading AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting uncertainty over rapid capability gains. Meta holds the highest named share at 32.5% amid ongoing Llama model iterations and open-source momentum, while Google at 23% benefits from Gemini updates and infrastructure scale. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 18.5% and 12.5%, driven by GPT-series releases and Claude safety-focused benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, developer adoption, and feature rollouts such as style control, with any new model launch or third-party evaluation likely to shift sentiment before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Meta 33%
Google 22%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 9%
$22,601 交易量
$22,601 交易量
2026-10-31
Meta
33%
22%
Anthropic
14%
OpenAI
18%
Alibaba
5%
ByteDance
4%
Z.ai
4%
Mistral
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
騰訊
<1%
微軟
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 33%
Google 22%
Anthropic 14%
OpenAI 9%
$22,601 交易量
$22,601 交易量
2026-10-31
Meta
$4,857 交易量
33%
$6,362 交易量
22%
Anthropic
$890 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$1,908 交易量
18%
Alibaba
$517 交易量
5%
ByteDance
$655 交易量
4%
Z.ai
$493 交易量
4%
Mistral
$512 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$498 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$501 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$483 交易量
1%
Baidu
$463 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$553 交易量
<1%
騰訊
$530 交易量
<1%
微軟
$535 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$512 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$421 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$470 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$464 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$518 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for second place among leading AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting uncertainty over rapid capability gains. Meta holds the highest named share at 32.5% amid ongoing Llama model iterations and open-source momentum, while Google at 23% benefits from Gemini updates and infrastructure scale. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 18.5% and 12.5%, driven by GPT-series releases and Claude safety-focused benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, developer adoption, and feature rollouts such as style control, with any new model launch or third-party evaluation likely to shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$22,601結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tight race for second place among leading AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting uncertainty over rapid capability gains. Meta holds the highest named share at 32.5% amid ongoing Llama model iterations and open-source momentum, while Google at 23% benefits from Gemini updates and infrastructure scale. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 18.5% and 12.5%, driven by GPT-series releases and Claude safety-focused benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, developer adoption, and feature rollouts such as style control, with any new model launch or third-party evaluation likely to shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$22,601結束日期
2026-11-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETTraders see a tight race for second place among leading AI labs by end of October, with multiple outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability reflecting uncertainty over rapid capability gains. Meta holds the highest named share at 32.5% amid ongoing Llama model iterations and open-source momentum, while Google at 23% benefits from Gemini updates and infrastructure scale. OpenAI and Anthropic trail at 18.5% and 12.5%, driven by GPT-series releases and Claude safety-focused benchmarks. Competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, developer adoption, and feature rollouts such as style control, with any new model launch or third-party evaluation likely to shift sentiment before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions