**Ongoing Houthi restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping since July 20, 2026, combined with territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, have sharply reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits without producing a complete shutdown.** IMF PortWatch data show tanker volumes averaging 9 per day in early October—26% below the prior baseline—with overall vessel traffic near 30 per day amid dark transits and selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. This sustains elevated freight rates, longer voyage times, and higher insurance costs for Asia-Europe and Middle East crude flows while supporting alternative pipeline loadings at Yanbu and partial container recovery. Recent Saudi-backed counteroffensives add uncertainty, yet daily activity remains positive per satellite tracking. Market-implied odds reflect the low probability of a zero-transit day before year-end, driven by economic incentives for risk-tolerant operators to continue selective passages. Key near-term catalysts include further military developments and any shift in Houthi targeting policy.