Name: Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?
Start: 2024-07-12T18:34:51.058463Z
End: 2024-08-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama publicly states that Joe Biden should drop out of the 2024 presidential race before 12:00 AM ET on the first day of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled for August 19, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Statements that the Democratic party should nominate another candidate other than Joe Biden will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Statements that are hedged or express ambiguity, such as “We need to consider our options for the nominee” will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution. 

If the DNC does not begin by August 31, and Barack Obama has not called for Biden to leave the ticket, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Barack Obama or his official representative(s); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Barack Obama

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson會在12月31日前被罷免議長職位嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

賀錦麗會在6月30日前宣布參加2028年總統大選嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

加文·紐森會贏得2028年民主黨總統提名嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普會在2026年12月31日前辭職嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普會在2027年前支持JD Vance競選總統嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普會在2027年前支持任何總統候選人嗎？

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

桑德斯會在2026年11月2日（美東時間）前支持詹姆斯·塔拉里科競選德州參議員嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

米奇·麥康奈將在任期結束前辭去參議院職務嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Liz Cheney會在2027年前宣布參選總統嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普內閣成員會在2026年12月31日前離職嗎？

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

副本 潘·邦迪會成為特朗普內閣中第一個在2027年前離職的人嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


川普會在1月31日前試圖解雇鮑威爾嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  

美國是否於1月31日前撤離巴格達大使館？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be the Director of National Intelligence for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gabbard's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

圖爾西·蓋伯德會在3月31日前退出嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

米格爾·迪亞斯-卡內爾會在6月30日前卸任古巴總統嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any length of time by the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mahmoud Abbas will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Palestinian National Authority within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Palestinian Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

馬哈茂德·阿巴斯在12月31日前卸任巴勒斯坦總統？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Republic of the Congo's president, Denis Sassou Nguesso, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Denis Sassou Nguesso will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position (e.g. when he steps down in consequence of a lost election) or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of the Republic of the Congo within this market's timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

恩格索會在2026年底前卸任剛果共和國總統嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, is removed from power for any length of time between this market’s creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

President Félix Tshisekedi will be considered removed from power if he resigns, is detained, otherwise loses his position (including by stepping down following a lost election), or is prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency within this market’s timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

到2026年底，奇塞克迪會下台不再擔任剛果民主共和國總統嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aleksandar Vučić ceases to be the President of Serbia for any period of time between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Aleksandar Vučić's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

亞歷山大·武契奇將於2026年6月30日前卸任塞爾維亞總統？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth在3月31日前會被撤換國防部長職位嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between December 16, 2025, and the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

蘇西·威爾斯會在3月31日前卸任白宮幕僚長嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Prime Minister of the Morocco Aziz Akhannouch is removed from power for any length of time between October 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Aziz Akhannouch will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Morocco within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

阿齊茲·阿漢努奇會在2026年12月31日之前卸任摩洛哥總理嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gavin Newsom officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Gavin Newsom will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Gavin Newsom (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

加文·紐森會在2026年12月31日之前宣布參選總統嗎？

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Masoud Pezeshkian will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as President, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Masoud Pezeshkian會在12月31日前出局嗎？

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

JD Vance 會贏得 2028 年美國總統大選嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

J.D. Vance 會贏得 2028 年共和黨總統提名嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be the Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the People Power Party or the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

張東赫會在2026年3月31日之前下台成為國民力量黨領導人嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

川普會在2026年支持瑪麗亞．科琳娜．馬查多競選委內瑞拉總統嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

市場背景

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

規則

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

市場背景

Will Barack Obama call on Biden to drop out?

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