Name: When will Biden drop out?
Start: 2024-07-18T16:26:50.149061Z
End: 2024-07-26T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 18, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Thursday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 19, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Friday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 20, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Saturday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 21, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Sunday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 22, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Monday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 23, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tuesday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 24, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Wednesday

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 26, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Next Friday (July 26)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race on July 25, 2024, between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Next Thursday (July 25)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden has not withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race by July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

None of the above

When will Biden drop out? 

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

副本 潘·邦迪會成為特朗普內閣中第一個在2027年前離職的人嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普內閣成員會在2026年12月31日前離職嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普會在2026年12月31日前辭職嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the US Secretary of Defense for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pete Hegseth在3月31日前會被撤換國防部長職位嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普會在2027年前支持任何總統候選人嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be the Director of National Intelligence for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gabbard's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

圖爾西·蓋伯德會在3月31日前退出嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普會在2027年前支持JD Vance競選總統嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between December 16, 2025, and the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

蘇西·威爾斯會在3月31日前卸任白宮幕僚長嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between December 4, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Mike Johnson會在12月31日前被罷免議長職位嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Félix Tshisekedi, is removed from power for any length of time between this market’s creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

President Félix Tshisekedi will be considered removed from power if he resigns, is detained, otherwise loses his position (including by stepping down following a lost election), or is prevented from fulfilling the duties of the presidency within this market’s timeframe.

Reporting of a lost election without a de facto loss of presidential position or power will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

到2026年底，奇塞克迪會下台不再擔任剛果民主共和國總統嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kamala Harris officially announces that she is running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by Kamala Harris will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether she actually filed a nomination to run, or whether she actually files a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Kamala Harris or her legal or social media representatives (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

賀錦麗會在6月30日前宣布參加2028年總統大選嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jang Dong-hyeok ceases to be the Leader of the People Power Party (PPP) for any period of time between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Jang Dong-hyeok’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the People Power Party or the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

張東赫會在2026年3月31日之前下台成為國民力量黨領導人嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  

美國是否於1月31日前撤離巴格達大使館？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Liz Cheney會在2027年前宣布參選總統嗎？

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

桑德斯會在2026年11月2日（美東時間）前支持詹姆斯·塔拉里科競選德州參議員嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify.

The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.

米奇·麥康奈將在任期結束前辭去參議院職務嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if John Fetterman announces he is resigning as a US Senator from Pennsylvania or otherwise ceases to be a US Senator from Pennsylvania for any length of time between November 14, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If John Fetterman announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from John Fetterman or the government of the US, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

費特曼會在2027年前離任嗎？

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

特朗普會提名凱文·沃什擔任下一任聯邦儲備主席嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kristi Noem ceases to be the Secretary of Homeland Security for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Noem's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kristi Noem 會在3月31日前下臺嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

美國國會議員因愛普斯坦檔案於4月30日前下台？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


川普會在1月31日前試圖解雇鮑威爾嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Prime Minister of the Morocco Aziz Akhannouch is removed from power for any length of time between October 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Aziz Akhannouch will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Morocco within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

阿齊茲·阿漢努奇會在2026年12月31日之前卸任摩洛哥總理嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President Masoud Pezeshkian will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as President, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Masoud Pezeshkian會在12月31日前出局嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

米格爾·迪亞斯-卡內爾會在6月30日前卸任古巴總統嗎？

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

川普會在2026年11月2日東部時間支持Steve Hilton參選加州州長嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), Lai Ching-te, is removed from power for any length of time between this market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

President  Lai Ching-te will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Taiwan within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

賴清德在2026年卸任台灣總統？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pam Bondi ceases to be the US Attorney General for any period of time between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Bondi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pam Bondi會在1月31日前卸任總檢察長嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
 
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.

NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

When will Biden drop out?

Thursday
$22,559 交易量
No

Friday
$96,010 交易量
No

Saturday
$223,885 交易量
No

Sunday
$533,552 交易量
Yes

Monday
$84,203 交易量
No

Tuesday
$48,281 交易量
No

Wednesday
$205,564 交易量
No

Next Thursday (July 25)
$34,136 交易量
No

Next Friday (July 26)
$45,368 交易量
No

None of the above
$91,608 交易量
No

市場背景

When will Biden drop out?

規則

When will Biden drop out?

市場背景

When will Biden drop out?

關於

When will Biden drop out?

Thursday$22,559 交易量No

Friday$96,010 交易量No

Saturday$223,885 交易量No

Sunday$533,552 交易量Yes

Monday$84,203 交易量No

Tuesday$48,281 交易量No

Wednesday$205,564 交易量No

Next Thursday (July 25)$34,136 交易量No

Next Friday (July 26)$45,368 交易量No

None of the above$91,608 交易量No

市場背景

When will Biden drop out?

規則

When will Biden drop out?

市場背景

When will Biden drop out?

關於

Thursday
$22,559 交易量
No

Friday
$96,010 交易量
No

Saturday
$223,885 交易量
No

Sunday
$533,552 交易量
Yes

Monday
$84,203 交易量
No

Tuesday
$48,281 交易量
No

Wednesday
$205,564 交易量
No

Next Thursday (July 25)
$34,136 交易量
No

Next Friday (July 26)
$45,368 交易量
No

None of the above
$91,608 交易量
No