Name: How Long will CZ's sentence be?
Start: 2024-04-24T17:20:55.102215Z
End: 2024-04-30T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to 36 or more months in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).

The primary resolution source will be official information from the US court system, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."

This revision ensures clarity and maintains consistency, allowing for accurate resolution based on whether the sentence is given in days or months.














36 months or more

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to between 30 months (inclusive) and 36 months (exclusive) in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).

30-35 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to between 24 months (inclusive) and 30 months (exclusive) in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).

24-29 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to between 18 months (inclusive) and 24 months (exclusive) in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).

18-23 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to between 12 months (inclusive) and 18 months (exclusive) in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).

12-17 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to between 6 months (inclusive) and 12 months (exclusive) in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market group will resolve to the bottom bracket (>6 months).

6-11 months

This market will resolve to "Yes" if CZ is sentenced to less than 6 months in prison, as part of the ongoing case 'United States v. Changpeng Zhao', by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the sentencing is expressed in days by the court, one month will be considered equivalent to 30 days for the purposes of this market. 

This market will resolve based on the first sentence rendered by the court regarding CZ's present trial.

The market pertains to the actual time to be served in his sentence—if he is given concurrent sentences, the longest one is used. If he is given consecutive sentences, the sum of their lengths is used.

If no sentence is rendered by Dec 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes".

<6 months

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.

If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

傑克·多赫蒂會被判處無需入獄嗎？

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol as part of his ongoing insurrection trial by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Only the sentence rendered in Yoon Suk Yeol’s insurrection case including the charge of leading an insurrection will count. Sentences rendered for separate cases (e.g. Yoon Suk Yeol’s trial on charges of benefiting the enemy related to drone flights over North Korea) will not count. If the insurrection case is formally consolidated with other cases into a single judgment, this market will resolve based on the total sentence issued for this consolidated case.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Yoon Suk Yeol is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If Yoon Suk Yeol is sentenced to life in prison, this market will resolve to the highest bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Yoon Suk Yeol is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and court system; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

尹錫悅會被判刑至少30年嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

鎖骨會在1月31日前入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

樸成宰會在3月31日前入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

何塞·路易斯·羅德里格斯·薩帕特羅會在3月31日前被逮捕嗎？

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy被定罪了嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cilia Flores會在2026年12月31日之前獲釋嗎？

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.

If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅會被判至少60年監禁嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Olympic snowboarder Ryan Wedding is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ryan Wedding 會在6月30日前被逮捕嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

金建希會在3月31日前被判入獄嗎？

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

黎智英會在1月31日前獲釋嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kang Sun-woo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

姜善宇會在3月31日前入獄嗎？

On March 17, sitting Minnesota State Senator Justin Eichorn was arrested for allegedly soliciting sex from a 16 year old. You can read more about that here: https://minnesotareformer.com/2025/03/18/gop-state-sen-justin-eichorn-arrested-for-suspicion-of-soliciting-sex-with-a-16-year-old-girl/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to soliciting a minor sexual activity in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Eichorn is never charged with soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case, or otherwise all charges related to soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all solicitation of a minor charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


參議員艾克霍恩被控引誘兒童成立嗎？

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


羅哈斯在德州非法墮胎案中被判有罪？

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

賈斯汀·阿吉亞爾在2027年前被判性侵罪？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

傑羅姆·鮑威爾會在3月31日前被逮捕嗎？

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

哈維·韋恩斯坦會被判處20到30年監禁嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


鮑威爾在2027年前會坐牢嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the trove founder (https://x.com/unwisecap) is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The arrested or detained individual must be credibly identified as the Trove founder operating the X account https://x.com/unwisecap, as confirmed by official statements, court documents, or a consensus of credible reporting

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trove founder arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former New York City mayor Eric Adams is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Eric Adams arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tim Walz會在12月31日前入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.




鎖骨在1月31日前收費了嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

比爾·克林頓會在1月31日前入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs 會在 3 月 31 日前入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

內塔尼亞胡會在3月31日前被逮捕嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with any alleged fake daycare facility in Minnesota, and the charged person is officially deported from the United States by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of a person from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

明尼蘇達州涉及日託詐騙被起訴的人會在3月31日前被驅逐出境嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Stefon Diggs 會在 3 月 31 日前被逮捕嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Zendaya announces that she is pregnant between market creation, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.    

The resolution source will be statements from Zendaya or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Zendaya 確認在 6 月 30 日前懷孕？

Becca Good is the widow of Renee Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026. According to the New York Times, the Justice Department launched an investigation to examine her ties to activist groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/us/prosecutors-doj-resignation-ice-shooting.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Becca Good by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Becca Good 在 3 月 31 日前已收費？

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ICE Shooter在3月31日前被解雇/辭職？

On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this case are officially deported from the United States by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of any of the indicted persons from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.


詐騙政府用以資助恐怖分子的索馬利亞人被驅逐出境？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Adams by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

艾瑞克·亞當斯會在12月31日前被起訴嗎？

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

ICE 射手會在3月31日前被指控嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

<6 months
$153,269 交易量
Yes

6-11 months
$128,491 交易量
No

12-17 months
$96,180 交易量
No

18-23 months
$140,956 交易量
No

24-29 months
$124,818 交易量
No

30-35 months
$152,380 交易量
No

36 months or more
$275,083 交易量
No

市場背景

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

規則

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

市場背景

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

關於

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

<6 months$153,269 交易量Yes

6-11 months$128,491 交易量No

12-17 months$96,180 交易量No

18-23 months$140,956 交易量No

24-29 months$124,818 交易量No

30-35 months$152,380 交易量No

36 months or more$275,083 交易量No

市場背景

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

規則

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

市場背景

How Long will CZ's sentence be?

關於

<6 months
$153,269 交易量
Yes

6-11 months
$128,491 交易量
No

12-17 months
$96,180 交易量
No

18-23 months
$140,956 交易量
No

24-29 months
$124,818 交易量
No

30-35 months
$152,380 交易量
No

36 months or more
$275,083 交易量
No