Name: Alec Baldwin guilty of manslaughter?
Start: 2024-07-11T16:00:52.373317Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alec Baldwin is found guilty of involuntary manslaughter in the case of the State of New Mexico vs. Alec Baldwin by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If Alec Baldwin’s case is dismissed, ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or results in a mistrial, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.

Alec Baldwin guilty of manslaughter?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).

If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.

The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

馬杜羅所有指控均有罪？

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

賈斯汀·阿吉亞爾在2027年前被判性侵罪？

On March 17, sitting Minnesota State Senator Justin Eichorn was arrested for allegedly soliciting sex from a 16 year old. You can read more about that here: https://minnesotareformer.com/2025/03/18/gop-state-sen-justin-eichorn-arrested-for-suspicion-of-soliciting-sex-with-a-16-year-old-girl/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to soliciting a minor sexual activity in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Eichorn is never charged with soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case, or otherwise all charges related to soliciting a minor for sexual activity in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all solicitation of a minor charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


參議員艾克霍恩被控引誘兒童成立嗎？

The Afghan man Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who allegedly shot two National Guard members in Washington D.C. on November 26, is rumored to have been blackmailed into the shooting by the Taliban.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban to commit this shooting by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, blackmail refers to members of the Taliban coercing Lakanwal to commit the shooting or a similar act by threatening Lakanwal or his family/friends. General encouragement or instruction from the Taliban, without coercion, will not qualify.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

塔利班對華盛頓特區槍手的勒索是否在3月31日前被證實？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient. Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

人工智慧會在2027年前被指控犯罪嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Don Lemon會被刑事起訴嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Adams by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

艾瑞克·亞當斯會在12月31日前被起訴嗎？

YouTuber Jack Doherty was recently arrested in Miami, Florida and charged with possession of a controlled substance (amphetamine), possession of 20 grams or less of marijuana, and resisting an officer without violence.

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Jack Doherty in relation to these charges by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in relation to these charges, regardless of any appeals. If the charges are tried separately, this market will stay open until the first sentence has been rendered for all three charges and will resolve based on the cumulative sentence imposed across all three charges. If sentencing has taken place for some, but not all, of these charges on October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on sentencing up to that point.

If Doherty is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if his sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Doherty is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Florida court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

傑克·多赫蒂會被判處無需入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Luigi Mangione在2027年之前嘗試過嗎？

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy被定罪了嗎？

On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that the alleged driver of the U-Haul Truck that drove into the crowd is a United States citizen by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the driver was a U.S. citizen. If the citizenship status of the driver has not been confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

事實查核：洛杉磯U-Haul攻擊案嫌犯是美國公民嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

傑弗瑞·愛潑斯坦的不當行為會在2026年12月31日前被確認嗎？

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

黎智英會在1月31日前獲釋嗎？

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

ICE 射手會在3月31日前被指控嗎？

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.

If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅會被判至少60年監禁嗎？

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


羅哈斯在德州非法墮胎案中被判有罪？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former New York City mayor Eric Adams is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Eric Adams arrested by March 31?

On January 11, 2026, a U-Haul truck drove into a crowd in Los Angeles, during a demonstration in support of Iranian protestors. ABC7 Los Angeles reported that a man was later pulled out of the truck and taken into police custody.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the alleged driver of this U-Haul for terrorism, by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Terrorism refers to any state or federal criminal charge or sentencing enhancement that is named “terrorism” or an equivalent term (e.g. “terroristic threats” would count), that is otherwise explicitly labeled in state or federal law as charges of terrorism, or that explicitly charge the defendant with the use or attempted use of violence or terror for political intimidation or coercion.

Terrorism enhancements of base charges will qualify. Hate crime charges or enhancements, however, will not alone qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

洛杉磯U-Haul襲擊案嫌犯被控以恐怖主義罪？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

提姆·沃爾茲會在2026年12月31日前被指控嗎？

The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a in a Television Movie or Limited Series, otherwise it will resolve to "No".

If for any reason no winner is announced by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed actor whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Screen Actors Guild, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.sagawards.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

歐文·庫珀會在2026年SAG獎獲得電視電影或限定影集最佳男主角獎嗎？

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

哈維·韋恩斯坦會被判處20到30年監禁嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione smiles during his next court appearance after the creation of this market. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only smiles captured on photo or video will count toward the resolution of this market, and only smiles captured in the courtroom will qualify. Smiles captured during transportation to or from his next court appearance will not qualify. If Luigi Mangione does not appear in court by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be photos and videos of Luigi Mangione's next appearance in court.

Luigi Mangione 會在下次出庭時微笑嗎？

The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Leading Actor category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed person whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the BAFTA Awards and the official BAFTA website (https://www.bafta.org/awards/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

提摩西·夏勒梅會在2026年英國電影學院獎（BAFTA）贏得最佳男主角嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tim Walz會在12月31日前入獄嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Olympic snowboarder Ryan Wedding is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ryan Wedding 會在6月30日前被逮捕嗎？

The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series, otherwise it will resolve to "No".

If for any reason no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed actor whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Screen Actors Guild, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.sagawards.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

諾亞·懷爾會在2026年SAG獎獲得最佳劇情類影集男主角獎嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jack Smith charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Crenshaw initiates a lawsuit against Shawn Ryan by January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Dan Crenshaw會在1月31日前起訴Shawn Ryan嗎？

On September 18, 2025, Acting U.S. Attorney Joseph H. Thompson announced that eight Minneapolis defendants were indicted for defrauding Minnesota’s housing stabilization program. It is rumored that some of these funds were used to fund the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab. You can read more about that here: https://www.city-journal.org/article/minnesota-welfare-fraud-somalia-al-shabaab?.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any of the Minnesota defendants who were indicted for fraud in this case are officially deported from the United States by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Deportation is defined as the formal removal of any of the indicted persons from the US by government authorities due to legal or administrative reasons. Voluntary departure, extradition, or relocation without an official deportation order will not count.

The resolution source will be credible reporting from major news outlets or official government statements.


詐騙政府用以資助恐怖分子的索馬利亞人被驅逐出境？

The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series, otherwise it will resolve to "No".

If for any reason no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed actor whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Screen Actors Guild, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.sagawards.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

賽斯·羅根會在2026年美國演員工會獎奪得最佳喜劇類男主角嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. 

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.


愛潑斯坦勒索證據會在3月31日前公布嗎？

Becca Good is the widow of Renee Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026. According to the New York Times, the Justice Department launched an investigation to examine her ties to activist groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/us/prosecutors-doj-resignation-ice-shooting.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Becca Good by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Becca Good 在 3 月 31 日前已收費？

The BAFTA Film Awards are presented annually by the British Academy of Film and Television Arts. For the 2026 BAFTA Film Awards, nominations are scheduled for January 27, 2026, and the ceremony for February 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins the Supporting Actor category at the 2026 BAFTA Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed person whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the BAFTA Awards and the official BAFTA website (https://www.bafta.org/awards/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

保羅·梅斯卡會在2026年英國電影學院獎（BAFTA）贏得最佳男配角嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tim Mynett for fraud, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

伊爾汗·奧馬爾的丈夫會被控詐騙罪嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.




鎖骨在1月31日前收費了嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

內塔尼亞胡會在3月31日前被逮捕嗎？

The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture, otherwise it will resolve to "No".

If for any reason no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed actor whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Screen Actors Guild, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.sagawards.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

提摩西·夏勒梅會在2026年美國演員工會獎奪得最佳男主角表現獎嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthony Albanese ceases to be the Prime Minister of Australia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Anthony Albanese's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian government and Anthony Albanese; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

安東尼·阿爾巴尼斯會在2026年12月31日前下台不再擔任澳洲總理嗎？

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ICE Shooter在3月31日前被解雇/辭職？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of President Nicolás Maduro taken after January 2 is made widely available to the public by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of Nicolás Maduro becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government.

1月30日前會公布馬杜羅的入獄照片嗎？

The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, otherwise it will resolve to "No".

If for any reason no winner announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed actor whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Screen Actors Guild, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.sagawards.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

貝尼西奧·德托羅會在2026年美國演員工會獎（SAG Awards）中贏得最佳電影男配角嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed a politician are made public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.

證據顯示愛潑斯坦勒索政客的消息將於1月31日公布？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any federal or state jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any individual in connection with the alleged doxing of the Delta Force commander associated with Operation Absolute Resolve by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, “charged” includes the filing of criminal charges, indictments, or the unsealing of a criminal complaint. Civil lawsuits alone do not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a U.S. state shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

有沒有人因為在3月31日前公開三角洲部隊指揮官身分（涉嫌對馬杜羅行動）而被控起訴？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kang Sun-woo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alec Baldwin guilty of manslaughter?

市場背景

Alec Baldwin guilty of manslaughter?

規則

Alec Baldwin guilty of manslaughter?

市場背景

Alec Baldwin guilty of manslaughter?

關於