Name: Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?
Start: 2024-12-09T16:37:27.576459Z
End: 2025-03-31T12:00:00Z

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On December 9, it was reported that Jay-Z has been accused in a civil lawsuit of raping a 13-year-old with hip-hop star Sean “Diddy” Combs. Jay-Z has claimed this is a blackmail attempt (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/9/jay-z-accused-in-lawsuit-of-raping-13-year-old-girl-with-diddy-in-2000).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Jay-Z has reached a settlement with the plaintiff by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

杰弗里·爱泼斯坦被证实遭遇他杀，截止到2026年12月31日？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. 

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.


爱泼斯坦勒索证据将在3月31日前公布？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dan Crenshaw initiates a lawsuit against Shawn Ryan by January 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

丹·克伦肖会在1月31日前起诉肖恩·瑞安吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed a politician are made public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.

证据显示爱普斯坦勒索政客将在1月31日前公布？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

特朗普会在3月31日前起诉鲍威尔吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is a guest on any "The Joe Rogan Experience" podcast episode between December 1, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If a consensus of credible reporting confirms Elon Musk recorded an episode with Rogan before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when/if it is released.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Spotify and/or Youtube, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

埃隆·马斯克会在6月30日之前参加乔·罗根的节目吗？

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

哈维·温斯坦会被判处20到30年监禁吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

比尔·克林顿会在1月31日前入狱吗？

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.

贾斯汀·阿吉亚尔在2027年前被判性侵罪？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

比尔·克林顿将在6月30日前离婚吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Bill or Hillary Clinton, or both, provide live or recorded testimony before either chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate), or any of their official committees or subcommittees, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

比尔或希拉里·克林顿会在1月31日前到国会作证吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Don Lemon 会被刑事指控吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna announces that she is pregnant between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements will qualify. Pregnancy announcements that are not credible, for example jokes, will not suffice.    

The resolution source will be statements from Rihanna or her representatives; however, a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Data Set 9 of the Epstein Files is released between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying data set will be labeled "Data Set 9 Files" on the U.S. Department of Justice website in the Epstein Library. Any additions to previously released data sets or file releases under data sets with names not exhibiting a sequential relationship similar to that between "Data Set 7 Files" and "Data Set 8 Files" will not be considered.

A partial release will qualify, so long as other qualifying conditions are met.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Justice website (see: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/doj-disclosures). 

Epstein数据集9会在3月之前发布吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Luigi Mangione在2027年之前尝试过吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):

1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.

2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.

3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.

If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.

Additional notes:

If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.

A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.

A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.

Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.

Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.

Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.

This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.

Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.

Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.

Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.

Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.

If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

埃隆·马斯克会赢得他对萨姆·奥特曼的诉讼吗？

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

BitBoy被定罪了吗？

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

以色列与哈马斯的停火将在6月30日之前取消吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber announce their intention to legally separate or divorce between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET of their intention to separate or divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the separation or divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual separation or divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market.

The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber, Hailey Bieber, and/or their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.

Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

育碧会在2027年前被收购吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if files which were not previously public and which pertain to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein are made public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and those files contain a list of individuals associated with Epstein in connection with his illegal activities, including but not limited to sex trafficking or related crimes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To qualify, the files must contain names in a context equivalent to what is commonly referred to as Epstein’s “client list”—that is, a document that explicitly identifies a list or set of individuals as being directly connected to, participating in, facilitating, funding, soliciting, or otherwise being implicated in Jeffrey Epstein’s illegal activities.

A document may qualify even if it does not contain explicit incriminating language on its face, so long as credible reporting or accompanying official context confirms that the released document is an incriminating client list or functionally equivalent roster of individuals tied to Epstein’s illegal activity.

The following will not qualify:

- Flight logs, passenger manifests, visitor logs, or transportation records which merely show individuals traveling with, meeting with, or visiting Epstein without any explicit or contextual tie to criminal activity.

- Contact books, address lists, social calendars, guest lists, schedules, correspondence logs, or similar documents that include names solely due to social contact, proximity, acquaintance, or logistical interaction with Epstein.

- Any document listing individuals without accompanying language, context, or credible reporting that connects those individuals to Epstein’s illegal activity.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the released files themselves and a consensus of credible reporting.

爱普斯坦客户名单将在6月30日前公布吗？

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

黎智英会在1月31日前被释放吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jack Smith charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


Up Only 播客将在2026年2月28日之前发布吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tom Lee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tom Lee charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

金建希会在3月31日前被判入狱吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

问题：特朗普会在2026年底前被弹劾吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use


亚马逊会收购 TikTok 吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that American International Group (AIG) Insurance will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Chubb Insurance, or vice versa, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Chubb or AIG will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Chubb or AIG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Chubb和AIG将在1月31日前宣布合并？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Hillary Clinton between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Hillary Clinton charged by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

问题：特朗普会在2026年12月31日前辞职吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the existence of another Elon Musk child is confirmed between December 10, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any child explicitly claimed by Elon Musk or confirmed to be his child by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

Qualifying announcements of a pregnancy will count.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Elon Musk and a consensus of credible reporting.

到6月30日会有另一个埃隆的宝宝吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Kylie Jenner is engaged to be married to Timothée Chalamet by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If it is announced that Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.  

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Kylie Jenner and/or Timothée Chalamet or one of their representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kylie Jenner 和 Timothée Chalamet 于2026年订婚了吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill or Hillary Clinton (or both Bill and Hillary Clinton) are held in contempt of Congress by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Bill or Hillary Clinton will be considered to be held in contempt of Congress once a full chamber vote of the House of Representatives or Senate votes to approve a resolution (or other measure) holding them in contempt of Congress. A qualifying vote within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of any subsequent appeals or challenges it may face or whether or not the Department of Justice prosecutes the matter.

The approval of a contempt of Congress resolution by the full chamber of the House of Representatives or Senate without a vote (e.g. approval through unanimous consent) will count.

Committee votes or other procedural steps prior to a full senate or house vote on a contempt of Congress resolution will not count.

The primary resolution sources will be official information from the United States Congress; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

特朗普政府会在2月15日前公布更多与爱泼斯坦相关的文件吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Eric Adams by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

埃里克·亚当斯会在12月31日前被指控吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

最高法院会在2月20日前对特朗普的关税作出裁决吗？

On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline.

This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party.

This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

埃隆·马斯克会获得圣克莱尔孩子的完全监护权吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) unfollows Grimes (@Grimezsz) on X at any point between December 10, 2025, 2PM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If either of the ‘@elonmusk’ or ‘@Grimezsz’ X accounts are deleted or disabled this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk X account (@elonmusk), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?

市场背景

Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?

规则

Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?

市场背景

Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?

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