Name: Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?
Start: 2025-03-03T23:59:00.624035Z
End: 2025-04-28T12:00:00Z

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The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

This market will resolve to the party that wins popular vote in the next Canadian general election. Winning the popular vote is defined as receiving the largest total number of votes regardless of seats won.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).

Conservative Party

Liberal Party

Green Party

Bloc Québécois

New Democratic Party

People's Party

Other

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

6月30日前加拿大会再次举行选举吗？

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

魁北克党将在2026年魁北克省大选中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026. 

This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.

截至6月30日，加拿大议会会有自由党多数席位吗？

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the Canadian New Democratic Party Leadership election scheduled for March 29, 2026.

The primary resolution source will be official New Democratic Party announcements; if unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

If no official winner has been declared by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

艾维·刘易斯会赢得加拿大新民主党领袖选举吗？

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

问题：民主党会在2028年美国总统大选中获胜吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

在下届俄罗斯议会选举中，统一俄罗斯党（ER）会获得最多席位吗？

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

问题：乔丹·巴德拉拉会赢得2027年法国总统大选吗？

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

问题：下一个荷兰政府会是 VVD + CDA + D66 吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

苏格兰民族党会在2026年苏格兰议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.

If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

统一俄罗斯党（ER）会在下一届俄罗斯议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election.

If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

黎巴嫩力量党会在2026年黎巴嫩议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得加州第22选区众议院席位吗？

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins a majority of seats, at least 233, in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得加州第27区众议院席位吗？

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡会成为以色列的下一任总理吗？

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election.

If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the second-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

2026年拉脱维亚议会选举中，团结党（JV）会赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary in early April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

TISZA－尊重与自由党（TISZA）会在下一届匈牙利议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得加州第17区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得北卡第11选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党会赢得德克萨斯州第35选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得弗吉尼亚第十区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得俄勒冈第五选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得康涅狄格第5区众议院席位吗？

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) election.

If the results are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won in the House of Representatives of the Japanese National Diet. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market (including through merger), the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition (including through merger), with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党会赢得宾夕法尼亚第10选区众议院席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

瑞典社会民主工人党（S）会在2026年瑞典议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

Fuerza Popular (FP)会在2026年秘鲁众议院选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得加州第13选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.

This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

平价医疗法案的保费税收抵免不会被延长吗？民主党在2026年会赢得众议院吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


法国大选是否会在2026年6月30日之前宣布？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党会赢得德克萨斯第15选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党会赢得得克萨斯州第34选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党会赢得德克萨斯第32选区众议院席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in West Bengal, India, in March–April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the West Bengal Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituents (AC).

全印草根大会党（AITC）会在2026年西孟加拉邦立法议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.

The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

到1月31日之前不会出现美国政府关门，并且民主党将在2026年赢得众议院吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得北卡罗来纳州第一区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得内华达州第4选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得内华达州第一区众议院席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad), in this election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the House of the Nation in this election. If additional seats are contested after the results of this election are made official (i.e. seats reserved for women are contested at a later date), those seats will not be considered for resolution of this market. If a second house of the Bangladeshi parliament is established, seats in that house will not be considered for resolution of this market.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).

孟加拉国民族主义党将在孟加拉国议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. 

This market includes any potential second round. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Elections Jury of Peru (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones) (portal.jne.gob.pe/portal).

拉斐尔·洛佩斯·阿利亚加会赢得2026年秘鲁总统选举吗？

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

JD Vance 会赢得 2028 年的美国总统大选吗？

The Thai House of Representatives was dissolved on December 12, 2025, triggering a snap legislative election within 45-60 days to elect members of the Thai House of Representatives (Sapha Phuthaen Ratsadon).

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Thai House of Representatives as a result of this election.

If voting in the Thai legislative election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Thai House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Thai government, specifically the Thai Election Commission.

人民党（PPLE）会在2026年泰国立法选举中赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. 

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

Conservative Party
$2,145,821 交易量
No

Liberal Party
$1,569,216 交易量
Yes

Green Party
$166,788 交易量
No

Bloc Québécois
$190,427 交易量
No

New Democratic Party
$502,408 交易量
No

People's Party
$393,522 交易量
No

Other
$832,708 交易量
No

市场背景

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

规则

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

市场背景

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

关于

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

Conservative Party$2,145,821 交易量No

Liberal Party$1,569,216 交易量Yes

Green Party$166,788 交易量No

Bloc Québécois$190,427 交易量No

New Democratic Party$502,408 交易量No

People's Party$393,522 交易量No

Other$832,708 交易量No

市场背景

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

规则

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

市场背景

Which party will win the popular vote in the next Canadian election?

关于

Conservative Party
$2,145,821 交易量
No

Liberal Party
$1,569,216 交易量
Yes

Green Party
$166,788 交易量
No

Bloc Québécois
$190,427 交易量
No

New Democratic Party
$502,408 交易量
No

People's Party
$393,522 交易量
No

Other
$832,708 交易量
No