Name: What will Trump say during the debate?
Start: 2024-06-20T18:41:32.380246Z
End: 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Jew" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms (such as "Jewish") will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Jew" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the religion (e.g. "Jew-lover" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Crack" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms (such as "cracking") will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "crack" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the drug (e.g. "crackhead" counts but "crackdown" doesn't).

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Crack

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Hunter" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market (e.g. "He is a hunter in his free time" counts).

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms (such as "hunting") will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Hunter" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person Hunter Biden.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Hunter

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Dementia" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Dementia" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to symptoms related to memory/decision-making.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Dementia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word/phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word/phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the acronym for Make America Great Again.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



MAGA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Jail" or "Prison" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Jail" or "Prison" is part of the compound word.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Jail/Prison

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Abortion" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Abortion" is part of the compound word.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Abortion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Felon" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count (e.g. "Felony" won't count).

Compound words will count as long as "Felon" is part of the compound word and and references the meaning which refers to a person who has been convicted of a crime.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Felon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Fake News" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Fake News

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Putin" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Putin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the person (e.g. "Putin-lover" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.  



Putin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Sleepy Joe" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.   



Sleepy Joe

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count. 

Compound words will count as long as "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to decentralized cryptocurrency (e.g. "cryptocurrencies" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.  



Crypto/Bitcoin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Rigged" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market. 

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count (e.g. "Rig" and "Rigs" won't count).

Compound words will count as long as "Rigged" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to something which has been manipulated or controlled dishonestly. 

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.



Rigged

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Obama" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Obama" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to any Obama (e.g. "Obamacare" counts).

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Obama

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "Shark" at any point during the first in-person presidential debate in the 2024 election cycle. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no in-person debate happens before election day, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Shark" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the sea animal.

The resolution source is live video of the debate. In case of ambiguity, an official transcript and/or a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.

Shark

What will Trump say during the debate?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

问题：特朗普会在美东时间2026年11月2日的加州州长选举中支持史蒂夫·希尔顿吗？

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2027年前支持任何总统候选人吗？

Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address?

Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks in Iowa on on January 27, 2026 (see: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on January 27, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the speech in Iowa (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2027年之前支持JD万斯竞选总统吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2026年支持玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多竞选委内瑞拉总统吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


特朗普会在3月31日前与德尔西·罗德里格斯会面吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

塔克·卡尔森会在2月28日之前采访特朗普吗？

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

唐纳德·特朗普将在2026年访问爱荷华州吗？

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

问题：特朗普会在4月30日之前访问中国吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Too Big To Rig" this week? (January 25)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Jerome Powell by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

到2026年1月31日之前，特朗普会与杰罗姆·鲍威尔会面吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 2, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Truth Social" in January?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党将在特朗普在2024年赢得的任何一个州失去众议院席位吗？

The UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett event is scheduled for January 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends UFC 324. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond January 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

特朗普会参加UFC 324吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

问题：特朗普会在2026年12月31日前辞职吗？

Donald Trump showed the middle finger to an individual heckling him at a Minnesota Ford plant on January 13 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/ford-plant-trump-middle-finger-flip).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if photo or video evidence shows Donald Trump giving the middle finger to anybody else by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying video or photo must show Donald Trump raising his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in the gesture commonly referred to as “flipping the bird”. Evidence must show Trump making the gesture in a context that could reasonably indicate it is directed at a person or group, even if it does not indicate so definitively.  Past instances such as Donald Trump showing his middle finger at a Black History Month event (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-middle-finger/4654155) or while speaking to female astronauts (https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-trump-flips-off-women-astronauts/4823553) would both count.

Photo or video evidence of Trump extending his middle finger while keeping the rest of his fingers down in a context which in no way indicates that the gesture was intentional or directed at an individual or group will not count.

AI-generated images or video will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo or video evidence of Donald Trump raising his middle finger.

特朗普会在2026年再次竖中指吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration announces a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement within this market’s timeframe from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. 

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, made before the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, will immediately resolve this market to “Yes”. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

唐纳德·特朗普会在2026年6月30日之前宣布新的联邦储备主席提名人选吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

问题：特朗普会在3月31日前向乌克兰发送战斧巡航导弹吗？

This Market will resolve to “US Strikes Iran” if the US strikes Iran before Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Trump Announce Fed” if Donald Trump announces a new Fed Chair nominee before the US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The US will be considered to strike Iran if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this would qualify). 

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not qualify, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source for the US striking Iran will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Donald Trump will be considered to announce a new Fed Chair nominee if Donald Trump or the Trump administration make an announcement stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for Chair of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs.

Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.

A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Chair of the Federal Reserve will qualify. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The resolution sources for Donald Trump announcing a new Fed Chair nominee will be official announcements from Donald Trump or the Trump administration and official information from the U.S. Senate.

If the US does not strike Iran and Donald Trump does not announce a new Fed Chair nominee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

美国先对伊朗发动打击还是特朗普先宣布美联储提名人选？

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

问题：特朗普会在2026年底前被弹劾吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

特朗普会在2026年6月30日前宣布全国紧急状态吗？

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

在特朗普赢得的任何州，共和党会在2024年失去美国参议院的席位吗？

The World Economic Forum takes place in Davos, Switzerland from January 19 - January 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the named individuals who shake Trump's hand between market creation and January 23, 2026, 11:59PM ET in Davos, Switzerland. Any handshakes which take place in locations other than Davos, Switzerland will not qualify towards the resolution of this market.

Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video.

Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.

The resolution source will be photo or video.

Will Trump shake hands with Aleksandar Vučić at the World Economic Forum?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Reza Pahlavi by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

特朗普会在1月31日前与礼萨·巴列维会面吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


What will Trump say during the debate?

Fake News
$51,260 交易量
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$345,299 交易量
No

Dementia
$51,944 交易量
No

Crack
$38,077 交易量
No

Felon
$18,797 交易量
Yes

Sleepy Joe
$60,474 交易量
No

Hunter
$29,795 交易量
Yes

Jew
$38,781 交易量
No

MAGA
$38,946 交易量
Yes

Jail/Prison
$50,813 交易量
Yes

Abortion
$36,105 交易量
Yes

Putin
$43,156 交易量
Yes

Rigged
$26,745 交易量
Yes

Obama
$36,032 交易量
Yes

Shark
$67,796 交易量
No

市场背景

What will Trump say during the debate?

规则

What will Trump say during the debate?

市场背景

What will Trump say during the debate?

关于

What will Trump say during the debate?

Fake News$51,260 交易量No

Crypto/Bitcoin$345,299 交易量No

Dementia$51,944 交易量No

Crack$38,077 交易量No

Felon$18,797 交易量Yes

Sleepy Joe$60,474 交易量No

Hunter$29,795 交易量Yes

Jew$38,781 交易量No

MAGA$38,946 交易量Yes

Jail/Prison$50,813 交易量Yes

Abortion$36,105 交易量Yes

Putin$43,156 交易量Yes

Rigged$26,745 交易量Yes

Obama$36,032 交易量Yes

Shark$67,796 交易量No

市场背景

What will Trump say during the debate?

规则

What will Trump say during the debate?

市场背景

What will Trump say during the debate?

关于

Fake News
$51,260 交易量
No

Crypto/Bitcoin
$345,299 交易量
No

Dementia
$51,944 交易量
No

Crack
$38,077 交易量
No

Felon
$18,797 交易量
Yes

Sleepy Joe
$60,474 交易量
No

Hunter
$29,795 交易量
Yes

Jew
$38,781 交易量
No

MAGA
$38,946 交易量
Yes

Jail/Prison
$50,813 交易量
Yes

Abortion
$36,105 交易量
Yes

Putin
$43,156 交易量
Yes

Rigged
$26,745 交易量
Yes

Obama
$36,032 交易量
Yes

Shark
$67,796 交易量
No