Name: Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election
Start: 2025-10-14T12:55:56.402592Z
End: 2025-10-24T00:00:00Z

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The Irish Presidential Election is scheduled to be held on October 24, 2025.

This market will resolve based on the total percentage of all votes cast (total poll) out of the number of people entitled to vote (the total electorate) in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election. Spoiled or invalid votes will still count toward total turnout for the purpose of this market.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If voting in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest listed bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Electoral Commission of Ireland (electoralcommission.ie).

<36%

40–44%

56%+

36–40%

44–48%

48–52%

52–56%

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

Presidential and general elections are scheduled to be held in Honduras on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage in the 2025 Honduran general election, calculated as “total votes cast” divided by “eligible voters” (“electores habilitados”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the 2025 Honduran general election aren’t known by December 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Honduran government, specifically the National Election Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral or CNE) (https://www.cne.hn/).

2025年宏都拉斯大选的投票率是否介于55%到60%之间？

2025年洪都拉斯大选的投票率会在58%到59%之间吗？

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the second-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 52% and 54%?

The first round of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election is scheduled for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage in the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, calculated as the total number of votes received (“votos recibidos”) divided by the total electorate (“electorado”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Costa Rica Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2026年哥斯达黎加总统选举第一轮的投票率会在62%到64%之间吗？

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

问题：乔丹·巴德拉拉会赢得2027年法国总统大选吗？

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

安东尼奥·若泽·塞格鲁会在2026年的葡萄牙总统大选中获胜吗？

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
 
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the second round of the Portuguese Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

安东尼奥·若泽·塞古罗会以20-30%的优势赢得第二轮吗？

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

JD Vance 会赢得 2028 年的美国总统大选吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


乌克兰的选举是否会在2026年6月30日之前宣布？

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the vote share João Cotrim de Figueiredo wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by João Cotrim de Figueiredo.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

若昂·科特里姆·德·菲格雷多在第一轮会赢得16%到18%的选票吗？

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

问题：民主党会在2028年美国总统大选中获胜吗？

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

卢拉会在2026年的巴西总统选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


法国大选是否会在2026年6月30日之前宣布？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

问题：乌克兰是否在2026年12月31日前举行选举？

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

伊莉安娜·约托娃会赢得下一届保加利亚总统选举吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Cyprus on May 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cyprus House of Representatives.

If voting in the Cyprus House of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Service of the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Cyprus (https://elections.gov.cy).

在塞浦路斯众议院选举中，争取民主联盟（DISY）会赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary in early April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

TISZA－尊重与自由党（TISZA）会在下一届匈牙利议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

2026年拉脱维亚议会选举中，团结党（JV）会赢得最多席位吗？

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Costa Rican Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the first round by at least 6%?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

罗布·桑德会赢得2026年爱荷华州州长民主党初选吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

苏格兰民族党会在2026年苏格兰议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

问题：伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗会在2026年哥伦比亚总统大选中获胜吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2026年中期选举会按计划举行吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

加文·纽森会在2027年前宣布参加总统竞选吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

斯洛文尼亚民主党(SDS)会在2026年斯洛文尼亚议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗会赢得2026年哥伦比亚总统选举的第一轮吗？

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

问题：费尔南多·迪亚斯·达·科斯塔会在2025年的几内亚比绍总统选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

兰迪·芬斯特拉会赢得2026年爱荷华州州长共和党初选吗？

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election or the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦是否有资格进入巴西总统决选？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得爱荷华州州长选举吗？

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

问题：劳拉·维吉尼亚·费尔南德斯·德尔加多会赢得2026年哥斯达黎加总统大选吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales  (https://senedd.wales/).

在2026年威尔士议会选举中，威尔士民族党会赢得最多席位吗？

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County

Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections.

In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group.

Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

中国国民党（KMT）会在2026年台湾地方选举中赢得最多地方政府首长席位吗？

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

埃里克·斯沃尔韦尔会在2026年加利福尼亚州州长选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

西班牙将在2026年6月30日之前举行突击选举吗？

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

以色列会赢得2026年欧洲歌唱大赛吗？

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

黎巴嫩力量党会在2026年黎巴嫩议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

埃马纽埃尔·格雷戈尔会赢得巴黎市长选举吗？

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

本杰明·内塔尼亚胡会成为以色列的下一任总理吗？

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

魁北克党将在2026年魁北克省大选中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. 

If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

问题：2026年权力平衡：R 参议院，D 众议院

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. 

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

朴灿大会赢得2026年仁川市长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得康涅狄格第5区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Ohio, scheduled to take place on May 5, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Ohio Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

艾米·阿克顿会赢得2026年俄亥俄州州长民主党初选吗？

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

是否有总统候选人在巴西大选第一轮中直接获胜？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年爱荷华州参议院选举中获胜吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

瑞典社会民主工人党（S）会在2026年瑞典议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

乌克兰会通过第二场欧洲歌唱大赛半决赛吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

芬兰会通过第一场欧洲歌唱大赛半决赛吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

<36%
$17,397 交易量
No

36–40%
$10,458 交易量
No

40–44%
$8,492 交易量
No

44–48%
$18,097 交易量
Yes

48–52%
$9,555 交易量
No

52–56%
$5,125 交易量
No

56%+
$11,012 交易量
No

市场背景

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

规则

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

市场背景

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

关于

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

<36%$17,397 交易量No

36–40%$10,458 交易量No

40–44%$8,492 交易量No

44–48%$18,097 交易量Yes

48–52%$9,555 交易量No

52–56%$5,125 交易量No

56%+$11,012 交易量No

市场背景

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

规则

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

市场背景

Turnout in 2025 Ireland Presidential Election

关于

<36%
$17,397 交易量
No

36–40%
$10,458 交易量
No

40–44%
$8,492 交易量
No

44–48%
$18,097 交易量
Yes

48–52%
$9,555 交易量
No

52–56%
$5,125 交易量
No

56%+
$11,012 交易量
No