Name: Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?
Start: 2024-02-29T00:30:00Z
End: 2024-03-05T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Tennessee has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tennessee

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Virginia has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Virginia

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Texas has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Texas

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Utah has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Utah

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Vermont has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vermont

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and the next highest vote-getter: 
Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest) - # Next highest / (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market group doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Alabama has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alabama

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and the next highest vote-getter: 
Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest) - # Next highest / (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market group doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates.

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Alaska has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alaska

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Arkansas has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Arkansas

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if California has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

California

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if North Carolina has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

North Carolina

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Minnesota has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Minnesota

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Massachusetts has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Massachusetts

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Maine has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Maine

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Colorado has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Colorado

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and votes for the next highest vote-getter: 
# Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest ) - # Next highest /  (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates. 

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Oklahoma has the highest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries among the states participating, excluding American Samoa. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Oklahoma

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

问题：特朗普会在美东时间2026年11月2日的加州州长选举中支持史蒂夫·希尔顿吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2027年前支持任何总统候选人吗？

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

在特朗普赢得的任何州，共和党会在2024年失去美国参议院的席位吗？

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党将在特朗普在2024年赢得的任何一个州失去众议院席位吗？

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

唐纳德·特朗普将在2026年访问爱荷华州吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2027年之前支持JD万斯竞选总统吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

大卫·威廉姆斯会成为弗吉尼亚州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Texas, scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Texas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Texas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

格雷格·阿博特会赢得2026年德克萨斯州州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

约翰·科宁在2026年德克萨斯州共和党初选中会获得第二名吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

韦斯利·亨特会在2026年德克萨斯州共和党初选中获得第三名吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

谢利·摩尔·卡皮托会成为西弗吉尼亚州的共和党参议员提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

马克·特谢拉会成为德克萨斯第21区的共和党提名人吗？

Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver the 2026 State of the Union address on February 24. You can read more about that here: https://mikejohnson.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=2812

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled delivery of the 2026 State of the Union address. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Biden" during the State of the Union address?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

约翰·卡特会成为德克萨斯第31选区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Nils Walker会成为得克萨斯第30选区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

阿什利·B·穆迪会成为佛罗里达州参议院的共和党提名人吗？

Will Trump say "Minnesota" during the State of the Union address?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

雷蒙德·麦凯会成为罗得岛州联邦参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

迈克·罗杰斯会赢得密歇根州联邦参议员共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

詹姆斯·塔拉里科会成为德克萨斯州参议员的民主党提名人吗？

Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuelan state leader or president by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he would prefer or endorses another individual, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2026年支持玛丽亚·科琳娜·马查多竞选委内瑞拉总统吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

林赛·格雷厄姆会成为南卡罗来纳州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

约翰·E·苏努努会成为新罕布什尔州参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon.

If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

蒂姆·斯凯尔顿会成为俄勒冈州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

达森·琼斯会成为科罗拉多州参议院的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Jack Ellison会成为南卡罗来纳州第一选区的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

马克·华纳会成为弗吉尼亚州参议员的民主党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana.

If no 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Republican Party; however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

比尔·卡西迪会成为路易斯安那州参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

唐·特雷西会成为伊利诺伊州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年得克萨斯州州长选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Texas, scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Texas Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

吉娜·希诺霍萨会赢得2026年德克萨斯州州长民主党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年赢得德克萨斯州参议院选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党将在2026年赢得佛罗里达州参议院选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年弗吉尼亚州参议员选举中获胜吗？

Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks in Iowa on on January 27, 2026 (see: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the event on January 27, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

This market is explicitly about the speech in Iowa (https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2026/01/21/donald-trump-iowa-for-speech-economy/88280760007/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by January 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

布鲁斯·布莱克曼会赢得2026年纽约州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

吉姆·里施会成为爱达荷州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

艾什莉·辛森会成为艾奥瓦州参议院的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Delaware.

If no 2026 Delaware Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Delaware Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

克里斯·库恩斯会成为特拉华州参议院的民主党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

杰森·杜伊会成为亚利桑那第一区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.

If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

巴里·摩尔会成为阿拉巴马州参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

马迪逊·考索恩会成为佛罗里达第19选区的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

安迪·比格斯会赢得2026年亚利桑那州州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

约翰·詹姆斯会赢得2026年密歇根州州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

到美国东部时间2026年11月2日，伯尼会公开支持丹·奥斯本竞选内布拉斯加州参议员吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Mississippi Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Oklahoma
$50,818 交易量
No

Arkansas
$32,507 交易量
No

Alabama
$47,831 交易量
No

Alaska
$46,948 交易量
Yes

Tennessee
$21,906 交易量
No

Vermont
$34,525 交易量
No

Massachusetts
$10,985 交易量
No

Utah
$40,669 交易量
No

Virginia
$19,468 交易量
No

Colorado
$11,123 交易量
No

California
$11,893 交易量
No

Maine
$23,484 交易量
No

Minnesota
$27,573 交易量
No

North Carolina
$30,865 交易量
No

Texas
$27,522 交易量
No

市场背景

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

规则

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

市场背景

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

关于

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

Oklahoma$50,818 交易量No

Arkansas$32,507 交易量No

Alabama$47,831 交易量No

Alaska$46,948 交易量Yes

Tennessee$21,906 交易量No

Vermont$34,525 交易量No

Massachusetts$10,985 交易量No

Utah$40,669 交易量No

Virginia$19,468 交易量No

Colorado$11,123 交易量No

California$11,893 交易量No

Maine$23,484 交易量No

Minnesota$27,573 交易量No

North Carolina$30,865 交易量No

Texas$27,522 交易量No

市场背景

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

规则

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

市场背景

Trump's best state on Super Tuesday?

关于

Oklahoma
$50,818 交易量
No

Arkansas
$32,507 交易量
No

Alabama
$47,831 交易量
No

Alaska
$46,948 交易量
Yes

Tennessee
$21,906 交易量
No

Vermont
$34,525 交易量
No

Massachusetts
$10,985 交易量
No

Utah
$40,669 交易量
No

Virginia
$19,468 交易量
No

Colorado
$11,123 交易量
No

California
$11,893 交易量
No

Maine
$23,484 交易量
No

Minnesota
$27,573 交易量
No

North Carolina
$30,865 交易量
No

Texas
$27,522 交易量
No