Name: RFK Jr. popular vote share?
Start: 2024-08-13T16:24:56.545116Z
End: 2024-11-05T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 4% (inclusive) and 5% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

4-5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 5% (inclusive) and 6% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

5-6%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 6% (inclusive) and 7% (inclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

6-7%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives more than 7% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 1% (inclusive) and 2% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

1-2%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 2% (inclusive) and 3% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

2-3%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives between 3% (inclusive) and 4% (exclusive) of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based off the official vote count once all States and D.C. have certified their votes.

3-4%

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年堪萨斯州州长选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年堪萨斯州参议员选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

托马斯·马西会成为肯塔基第四选区的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2027年之前支持JD万斯竞选总统吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

杰夫·科利耶会赢得2026年堪萨斯州州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas.

If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

克里斯蒂·戴维斯会成为堪萨斯州参议院的民主党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Jack Ellison会成为南卡罗来纳州第一选区的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

丹尼尔·卡梅伦会成为肯塔基州参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年肯塔基州参议院选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得罗德岛州参议院选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年赢得阿肯色州参议员选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年弗吉尼亚州参议员选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 6, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

伊桑·科森会赢得2026年堪萨斯州州长民主党初选吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

J.D. Vance 会赢得2028年共和党总统候选人提名吗？

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

问题：特朗普会在美东时间2026年11月2日的加州州长选举中支持史蒂夫·希尔顿吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

雷蒙德·麦凯会成为罗得岛州联邦参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

大卫·威廉姆斯会成为弗吉尼亚州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

约翰·科宁在2026年德克萨斯州共和党初选中会获得第二名吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

马迪逊·考索恩会成为佛罗里达第19选区的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

到美国东部时间2026年11月2日，伯尼会公开支持丹·奥斯本竞选内布拉斯加州参议员吗？

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the vote share João Cotrim de Figueiredo wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by João Cotrim de Figueiredo.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

若昂·科特里姆·德·菲格雷多在第一轮会赢得16%到18%的选票吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

贾斯汀·斯托里会成为佛罗里达第九选区的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kentucky.

If no 2026 Kentucky Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kentucky Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

乔尔·威利特会成为肯塔基州参议院的民主党候选人吗？

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026.
 
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the second round of the Portuguese Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

安东尼奥·若泽·塞古罗会以20-30%的优势赢得第二轮吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年新泽西州参议员选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm West Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年赢得西弗吉尼亚州参议员选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得罗德岛州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

杰克·里德会成为罗得岛州参议员的民主党提名人吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

特朗普会在2027年前支持任何总统候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

谢利·摩尔·卡皮托会成为西弗吉尼亚州的共和党参议员提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

布林克·哈丁会成为内布拉斯加州第二选区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

乔·米切尔会成为爱荷华州第二选区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得马里兰州州长选举吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

加文·纽瑟姆会赢得2028年民主党总统候选人提名吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

韦斯利·亨特会在2026年德克萨斯州共和党初选中获得第三名吗？

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.

If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.

Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.

The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

57位参议员会为特朗普提名的美联储主席投赞成票吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得纽约第22国会选区的众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年阿肯色州州长选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得纽约第18区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Paul LePage会成为缅因州第二选区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得纽约州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

民主党会赢得纽约第4选区众议院席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

共和党会赢得新泽西第七选区众议院席位吗？

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

JD Vance 会赢得 2028 年的美国总统大选吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

<1%
$1,268,661 交易量
Yes

1-2%
$194,065 交易量
No

2-3%
$216,235 交易量
No

3-4%
$282,159 交易量
No

4-5%
$288,169 交易量
No

5-6%
$2,924,891 交易量
No

6-7%
$800,081 交易量
No

>7%
$334,236 交易量
No

市场背景

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

规则

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

市场背景

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

关于

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

<1%$1,268,661 交易量Yes

1-2%$194,065 交易量No

2-3%$216,235 交易量No

3-4%$282,159 交易量No

4-5%$288,169 交易量No

5-6%$2,924,891 交易量No

6-7%$800,081 交易量No

>7%$334,236 交易量No

市场背景

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

规则

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

市场背景

RFK Jr. popular vote share?

关于

<1%
$1,268,661 交易量
Yes

1-2%
$194,065 交易量
No

2-3%
$216,235 交易量
No

3-4%
$282,159 交易量
No

4-5%
$288,169 交易量
No

5-6%
$2,924,891 交易量
No

6-7%
$800,081 交易量
No

>7%
$334,236 交易量
No