Name: Largest company in the world on January 31?
Start: 2024-01-11T23:18:38.991Z
End: 2024-01-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is the largest company in the world as ranked by market capitalization as of NASDAQ's closure on January 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Amazon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple Inc. (AAPL) is the largest company in the world as ranked by market capitalization as of NASDAQ's closure on January 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Apple

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabian Oil Group/Aramco (2222.SR) is the largest company in the world as ranked by market capitalization as of NASDAQ's closure on January 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Saudi Aramco

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) is the largest company in the world as ranked by market capitalization as of NASDAQ's closure on January 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Microsoft

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any company other than Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Saudi Arabian Oil Group/Aramco (TADAWUL), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), or Alphabet (GOOG) is the largest company in the world as ranked by market capitalization as of NASDAQ's closure on January 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Other

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL) is the largest company in the world as ranked by market capitalization as of NASDAQ's closure on January 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Alphabet (Google)

Largest company in the world on January 31?

This market will resolve to the company that owns the model with the top LiveBench “coding average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/) on March 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

3月31日，OpenAI会拥有最好的编程AI模型吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

截至2026年12月31日，人工智能行业是否会出现衰退？

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

蒂姆·库克会在2027年前卸任苹果首席执行官吗？

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

到2026年6月30日，谷歌是否会成为第一家让 AI 模型在 Chatbot Arena 上达到 1500 分的公司？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of unique humans displayed on the official World website exceeds 30,000,000 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the official World website, available at https://world.org/, specifically the “Unique humans” figure shown on the homepage.

This market is based solely on the “Unique humans” figure displayed on the official World website (https://world.org/), not on data from third-party analytics dashboards, or unofficial sources.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official World Network figures.

Over 30M humans verified on World Network by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or not the actual filing occurs.

The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, including a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or any other individual or team that officially represents the company.

A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Workhorse会在2027年前宣布破产吗？

If Jia Yueting enters mainland China by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, "entering mainland China" is defined as Jia Yueting physically setting foot within the territory of the People’s Republic of China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.

Travel through airspace or territorial waters during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

贾跃亭会在6月30日之前进入中国大陆吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Largest company in the world on January 31?

Apple
$38,287 交易量
No

Microsoft
$52,577 交易量
Yes

Saudi Aramco
$19,228 交易量
No

Amazon
$11,936 交易量
No

Alphabet (Google)
$4,117 交易量
No

Other
$2,663 交易量
No

市场背景

Largest company in the world on January 31?

规则

Largest company in the world on January 31?

市场背景

Largest company in the world on January 31?

关于

Largest company in the world on January 31?

Apple$38,287 交易量No

Microsoft$52,577 交易量Yes

Saudi Aramco$19,228 交易量No

Amazon$11,936 交易量No

Alphabet (Google)$4,117 交易量No

Other$2,663 交易量No

市场背景

Largest company in the world on January 31?

规则

Largest company in the world on January 31?

市场背景

Largest company in the world on January 31?

关于

Apple
$38,287 交易量
No

Microsoft
$52,577 交易量
Yes

Saudi Aramco
$19,228 交易量
No

Amazon
$11,936 交易量
No

Alphabet (Google)
$4,117 交易量
No

Other
$2,663 交易量
No