Name: Iceland Presidential Election Winner
Start: 2024-05-29T19:31:13.951588Z
End: 2024-06-01T12:00:00Z

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The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Katrín Jakobsdóttir wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir

The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Baldur Þórhallsson wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Baldur Þórhallsson

The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Halla Tómasdóttir wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Halla Tómasdóttir

The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Halla Hrund Logadóttir wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Halla Logadóttir

The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jón Gnarr wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Jón Gnarr

The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arnar Þór Jónsson wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Arnar Jónsson

The 2024 Icelandic presidential election is scheduled to take place on June 1, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate other than Katrín Jakobsdóttir, Baldur Þórhallsson, Halla Tómasdóttir, Halla Hrund Logadóttir, Jón Gnarr, or Arnar Þór Jónsson wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Yes."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Iceland, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Other

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Idaho gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年爱达荷州州长选举中获胜吗？

Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

到2026年3月31日，是否会有其他国家抵制2026年欧洲歌唱大赛？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

吉姆·里施会成为爱达荷州参议院的共和党候选人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

2026年共和党会赢得爱达荷州参议院选举吗？

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

2026年拉脱维亚议会选举中，团结党（JV）会赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得爱荷华州州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

兰迪·芬斯特拉会赢得2026年爱荷华州州长共和党初选吗？

The Incheon mayoral election is scheduled to take place in Incheon, South Korea on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Incheon. 

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://www.nec.go.kr/).

朴灿大会赢得2026年仁川市长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.  

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".  

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

汤姆·贝吉奇会赢得2026年阿拉斯加州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得罗德岛州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

艾什莉·辛森会成为艾奥瓦州参议院的共和党提名人吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales  (https://senedd.wales/).

在2026年威尔士议会选举中，威尔士民族党会赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

苏格兰民族党会在2026年苏格兰议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

共和党会在2026年爱荷华州参议院选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. 

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. 

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得亚利桑那州州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Idaho, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Idaho Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

特丽·皮肯斯会赢得2026年爱达荷州州长民主党初选吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Latvia: Supernova 2026, who will represent Latvia in the 2026 Eurovision song contest.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Latvia: Supernova 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Supernova rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Supernova (https://eurovisionworld.com/national/latvia/supernova-2026), including live footage of Supernova 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

埃米莉娅会赢得2026年Supernova吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


格陵兰会在2026年投票决定独立吗？

The Santa Cruz gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).

路易斯·费尔南多·卡马乔会赢得2026年圣克鲁斯州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

丹·沙利文会在2026年阿拉斯加参议院选举中获胜吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

瑞典社会民主工人党（S）会在2026年瑞典议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. 

If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".

If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).

瓦达尼党（索马里兰国家党）会在下一次索马里兰议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

雷蒙德·麦凯会成为罗得岛州联邦参议员的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

以色列会赢得2026年欧洲歌唱大赛吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党将在2026年赢得明尼苏达州州长选举吗？

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round, a second round will be held on November 30, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

问题：费尔南多·迪亚斯·达·科斯塔会在2025年的几内亚比绍总统选举中获胜吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

弗兰克·F·布拉斯 Jr. 会赢得2026年关岛州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

乔什·图雷克会成为爱荷华州参议员的民主党提名人吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得罗德岛州参议院选举吗？

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

问题：劳拉·维吉尼亚·费尔南德斯·德尔加多会赢得2026年哥斯达黎加总统大选吗？

The 2026 Costa Rican general election is scheduled for February 1, 2026. The President of Costa Rica is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 40% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the Costa Rican Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the first round by at least 6%?

The Cochabamba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Bolivia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).

塞尔吉奥·奥利弗·罗德里格斯会赢得2026年科恰班巴省省长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Guam, scheduled to take place on August 1, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Guam Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Guam Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

乔什·特诺里奥会赢得2026年关岛州长民主党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

罗布·桑德会赢得2026年爱荷华州州长民主党初选吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Bangladesh on February 12, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the unicameral Bangladeshi parliament, the “House of the Nation” (Jatiya Sangsad), in this election.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the House of the Nation in this election. If additional seats are contested after the results of this election are made official (i.e. seats reserved for women are contested at a later date), those seats will not be considered for resolution of this market. If a second house of the Bangladeshi parliament is established, seats in that house will not be considered for resolution of this market.

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bangladeshi Government, specifically the Bangladesh Election Commission (https://www.ecs.gov.bd/?lang=en).

孟加拉国民族主义党将在孟加拉国议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得夏威夷州长选举吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Cyprus on May 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cyprus House of Representatives.

If voting in the Cyprus House of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Service of the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Cyprus (https://elections.gov.cy).

在塞浦路斯众议院选举中，争取民主联盟（DISY）会赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得俄勒冈州州长选举吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

罗伯特·雷蒙多会赢得2026年罗德岛州长共和党初选吗？

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

乔·米切尔会成为爱荷华州第二选区的共和党提名人吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Vidbir 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Vidbir 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Vidbir rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://www.eurovision.com/), including live footage of Vidbir 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Jerry Heil会赢得2026年Vidbir吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

杰克·里德会成为罗得岛州参议员的民主党提名人吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Costa Rica on 1 February 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly.

If voting in the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Legislative Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones) (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html).

PPSO 是否将在2026年哥斯达黎加立法议会选举中赢得最多席位？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the November 30 Honduran presidential election are annulled by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The results of this election will be considered annulled if they are formally declared invalid by the Honduras Tribunal de Justicia Electoral or another official body of the government of Honduras with the legal jurisdiction to do so.

If an official body of the government of Honduras with legal jurisdiction to rule on this matter has formally accepted a case seeking annulment of this election and no ruling has been issued by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open until a ruling is publicly announced.

This market will resolve based on the first qualifying ruling issued that annuls this election. Subsequent appeals or challenges will not be considered.

The resolution sources will be official information from the government of Honduras and a consensus of credible reporting.

洪都拉斯总统大选将在2月28日前被宣布无效？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Slovenian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian government, specifically the Slovenian Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (dvk-rs.si/).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

斯洛文尼亚民主党(SDS)会在2026年斯洛文尼亚议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得康涅狄格州州长选举吗？

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

伊莉安娜·约托娃会赢得下一届保加利亚总统选举吗？

The first round of the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election is scheduled for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage in the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, calculated as the total number of votes received (“votos recibidos”) divided by the total electorate (“electorado”).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Costa Rica Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones (https://www.tse.go.cr/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2026年哥斯达黎加总统选举第一轮的投票率会在62%到64%之间吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

民主党会在2026年赢得缅因州州长选举吗？

Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.

If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

Katrín Jakobsdóttir
$6,957 交易量
No

Baldur Þórhallsson
$4,490 交易量
No

Halla Tómasdóttir
$10,884 交易量
Yes

Halla Logadóttir
$5,912 交易量
No

Jón Gnarr
$9,931 交易量
No

Arnar Jónsson
$11,055 交易量
No

Other
$6,637 交易量
No

市场背景

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

规则

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

市场背景

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

关于

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

Katrín Jakobsdóttir$6,957 交易量No

Baldur Þórhallsson$4,490 交易量No

Halla Tómasdóttir$10,884 交易量Yes

Halla Logadóttir$5,912 交易量No

Jón Gnarr$9,931 交易量No

Arnar Jónsson$11,055 交易量No

Other$6,637 交易量No

市场背景

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

规则

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

市场背景

Iceland Presidential Election Winner

关于

Katrín Jakobsdóttir
$6,957 交易量
No

Baldur Þórhallsson
$4,490 交易量
No

Halla Tómasdóttir
$10,884 交易量
Yes

Halla Logadóttir
$5,912 交易量
No

Jón Gnarr
$9,931 交易量
No

Arnar Jónsson
$11,055 交易量
No

Other
$6,637 交易量
No