Name: Eurovision Winner?
Start: 2024-02-21T00:31:00Z
End: 2024-05-10T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Ukraine

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Italian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Italy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Israel

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Croatian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Croatia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Irish candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Ireland

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Icelandic candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Iceland

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Georgian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Georgia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Finnish candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Finland 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Lithuanian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Lithuania

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

France

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Swedish candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Sweden

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

United Kingdom

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Norwegian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Norway

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Belgian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Belgium

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Swiss candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Switzerland

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Australian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Australia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Polish candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Poland

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Armenian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Armenia

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Austrian candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Austria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Greek candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Greece

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Spanish candidate for Eurovision 2024 wins. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it can be definitively determined that it is impossible for this candidate to win Eurovision 2024, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Spain

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate from a country not listed in this market group but participating in Eurovision 2024 wins that contest. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This is the list of countries previously referred to: Ukraine, Italy, Croatia, Israel, Sweden, United Kingdom, Belgium, Iceland, Norway, Lithuania, Ireland, Finland, France, Switzerland, Georgia, Austria, Greece, Australia, Armenia, Poland, Spain.

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "Yes". If two or more countries tie to win Eurovision 2024, this market will resolve to the country who comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2024, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Other

Eurovision Winner?

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

以色列会赢得2026年欧洲歌唱大赛吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Latvia: Supernova 2026, who will represent Latvia in the 2026 Eurovision song contest.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Latvia: Supernova 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Supernova rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Supernova (https://eurovisionworld.com/national/latvia/supernova-2026), including live footage of Supernova 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

埃米莉娅会赢得2026年Supernova吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Vidbir 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Vidbir 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Vidbir rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://www.eurovision.com/), including live footage of Vidbir 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Jerry Heil会赢得2026年Vidbir吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

芬兰会通过第一场欧洲歌唱大赛半决赛吗？

Eesti Laul, the Estonian national selection for the Eurovision Song Contest, is scheduled for the final on February 14, 2026.

This market resolves to the artist who wins Eesti Laul 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed artist to win Eesti Laul 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official rules of the contest.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Estonian broadcaster ERR, including live footage of the competition, however a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., https://eurovisionworld.com/) will suffice.

Ollie会赢得2026年爱沙尼亚之歌比赛吗？

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

乌克兰会通过第二场欧洲歌唱大赛半决赛吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Melodifestivalen 2026, who will represent Sweden in the 2026 Eurovision song contest.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Melodifestivalen 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Melodifestivalen rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Melodifastivalen (https://eurovisionworld.com/national/sweden/melodifestivalen-2026), including live footage of Melodifestivalen 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Greczula会赢得2026年的Melodifestivalen吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Sing for Greece 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Sing for Greece 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Sing for Greece rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovisionworld.com/national/greece/sing-for-greece-2026), including live footage of Sing for Greece 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

阿基拉斯会赢得2026年为希腊而唱吗？

Iceland has become the fifth country to announce a boycott of the 2026 Eurovision Song Contest over Israel’s participation. You can read more about this development here: https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2025/dec/10/iceland-becomes-fifth-country-to-boycott-eurovison-2026-over-israel.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Iceland, Spain, Slovenia, the Netherlands, or Ireland announces a boycott of the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Only boycotts, defined as official declarations of non-participation, will qualify for resolution. Bans or exclusions will not qualify.
The qualifying boycott announcement must occur within this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective countries, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and Eurovision; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

到2026年3月31日，是否会有其他国家抵制2026年欧洲歌唱大赛？

This market will resolve to the contestant or group who wins Sanremo 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Sanremo 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to official Sanremo rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanremo (https://sanremofestival.info/), including live footage of Sanremo 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Fedez 和 Marco Masini 会赢得 2026 年圣雷莫音乐节吗？

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Europa League (https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

阿斯顿维拉会在2025-2026赛季的欧足联欧洲联赛中夺冠吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the IEM Krakow 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for January 28 - February 8, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, ESL Gaming (https://pro.eslgaming.com/tour/cs/krakow/).

Team Vitality会赢得2026年IEM克拉科夫吗？

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

阿森纳会赢得 2025–26 赛季欧冠吗？

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election. 

In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).

2026年拉脱维亚议会选举中，团结党（JV）会赢得最多席位吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Best Dance/Electronic Recording at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“No Cap - Disclosure & Anderson .Paak” 会在第68届格莱美奖中获得最佳舞曲/电子录音奖吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends 2026 LEC Versus.

If the 2026 LEC Versus is postponed after July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

G2 Esports会赢得2026年LEC对决吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best Dance/Electronic Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed album that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“Ten Days - Fred again..”会在第68届格莱美奖中获得最佳舞曲/电子音乐专辑奖吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations. Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked. Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.

Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.

A qualifying agreement must be jointly announced and finalized, and take the form of a treaty, executive agreement, memorandum of understanding, joint declaration, or equivalent written instrument. Announcements which are statements of intent, contingent, exploratory, or otherwise not indicative of a formalized policy will not count.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Qualifying European countries include: Albania; Andorra; Armenia; Austria; Azerbaijan; Belgium; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Cyprus; Czechia; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Georgia; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Iceland; Ireland; Italy; Latvia; Liechtenstein; Lithuania; Luxembourg; Malta; Moldova; Monaco; Montenegro; Netherlands; North Macedonia; Norway; Poland; Portugal; Romania; San Marino; Serbia; Slovakia; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; Switzerland; Ukraine; United Kingdom.

欧洲国家同意在6月30日前向乌克兰提供安全保障吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the League of Legends Champions Korea (LCK) 2026 season playoffs.

If the 2026 LCK season is postponed after December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gen.G电子竞技俱乐部会赢得2026年LCK赛季季后赛吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Big Brother Brasil 26.

If Big Brother Brasil 26 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Big Brother Brasil 26 has otherwise not concluded by April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. 

This market will remain open until the conclusion of the season.

The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Big Brother Brasil 26.

Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Best Pop Solo Performance at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter”会在第68届格莱美奖上获得最佳流行歌手表演奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Best Global Music Performance at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“EoO - Bad Bunny”会在第68届格莱美奖中赢得最佳全球音乐表演奖吗？

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)


基民盟将在2026年柏林州选举中赢得最多席位吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed song that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

Golden（Ejae 和 Mark Sonnenblick）会在第68届格莱美奖中获得年度最佳歌曲奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Best Dance Pop Recording at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“Abracadabra - Lady Gaga”会在第68届格莱美奖上获得最佳舞曲流行录音奖吗？

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Hungary in early April 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election. 

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).

TISZA－尊重与自由党（TISZA）会在下一届匈牙利议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best New Age, Ambient, or Chant Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed album that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“Chris Redding 的《The Colors In My Mind》会在第68届格莱美奖上获得最佳新时代、氛围或咏唱专辑奖吗？

This market will resolve according to the team that finishes first in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. 

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish first in the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA’s official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

阿森纳会在欧冠小组赛阶段排名第一吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed person who wins Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed person whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

奥利维亚·迪恩会在第68届格莱美奖中获得最佳新艺人奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best Pop Solo Vocal Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed album that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“MAYHEM - Lady Gaga”会在第68届格莱美奖中获得最佳流行歌手专辑奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

问题：Luther（肯德里克·拉马尔和SZA）会在第68届格莱美奖颁奖典礼上获得年度唱片奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed person that wins Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

艾米·艾伦会在第68届格莱美奖上获得年度非古典词曲作者奖吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026 tournament, currently scheduled for February 14th - February 22nd, 2026.

If this tournament is postponed after February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, PGL Esports (https://www.pglesports.com/). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/counterstrike/PGL/2026/Cluj-Napoca)

Team Vitality会赢得2026年PGL Cluj-Napoca吗？

This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Survivor season 50.

If Survivor season 50 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Survivor season 50 has otherwise not concluded by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. 

This market will remain open until the conclusion of the season.

The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Survivor season 50.

奥布里·布拉科会赢得《幸存者》第50季吗？

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. 

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

安东尼奥·若泽·塞格鲁会在2026年的葡萄牙总统大选中获胜吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed music video that wins Best Music Video at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed music video that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter”会在第68届格莱美颁奖典礼上获得最佳音乐录影带奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Best African Music Performance at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“Gimme Dat - Ayra Starr 与 Wizkid 合作”会在第68届格莱美年度最佳非洲音乐表演中获奖吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

冯德莱恩将在2026年卸任欧盟委员会主席？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

瑞典社会民主工人党（S）会在2026年瑞典议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

基利安·姆巴佩会赢得2026年金球奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed album that wins Best Global Music Album at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed album that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“No Sign of Weakness - Burna Boy” 会在第68届格莱美奖上获得最佳全球音乐专辑奖吗？

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

唐纳德·特朗普会在2026年获得诺贝尔和平奖吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed track that wins Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed track that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

“APT. - Rosé & Bruno Mars”会在第68届格莱美奖中获得最佳流行组合/团体表演奖吗？

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

苏格兰民族党会在2026年苏格兰议会选举中赢得最多席位吗？

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed recording that wins Best Opera Recording at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed recording that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

Eurovision Winner?

Ukraine
$64,601 交易量
No

Italy
$87,217 交易量
No

Israel
$105,889 交易量
No

Croatia
$149,720 交易量
No

Ireland
$53,092 交易量
No

Iceland
$49,433 交易量
No

Georgia
$16,352 交易量
No

Finland
$22,602 交易量
No

Lithuania
$34,373 交易量
No

France
$82,899 交易量
No

Sweden
$24,514 交易量
No

United Kingdom
$31,694 交易量
No

Norway
$13,194 交易量
No

Belgium
$32,628 交易量
No

Switzerland
$162,711 交易量
Yes

Australia
$27,442 交易量
No

Poland
$19,421 交易量
No

Armenia
$18,563 交易量
No

Austria
$13,803 交易量
No

Greece
$57,764 交易量
No

Spain
$17,569 交易量
No

Other
$97,780 交易量
No

市场背景

Eurovision Winner?

规则

Eurovision Winner?

市场背景

Eurovision Winner?

关于

Eurovision Winner?

Ukraine$64,601 交易量No

Italy$87,217 交易量No

Israel$105,889 交易量No

Croatia$149,720 交易量No

Ireland$53,092 交易量No

Iceland$49,433 交易量No

Georgia$16,352 交易量No

Finland $22,602 交易量No

Lithuania$34,373 交易量No

France$82,899 交易量No

Sweden$24,514 交易量No

United Kingdom$31,694 交易量No

Norway$13,194 交易量No

Belgium$32,628 交易量No

Switzerland$162,711 交易量Yes

Australia$27,442 交易量No

Poland$19,421 交易量No

Armenia$18,563 交易量No

Austria$13,803 交易量No

Greece$57,764 交易量No

Spain$17,569 交易量No

Other$97,780 交易量No

市场背景

Eurovision Winner?

规则

Eurovision Winner?

市场背景

Eurovision Winner?

关于

Ukraine
$64,601 交易量
No

Italy
$87,217 交易量
No

Israel
$105,889 交易量
No

Croatia
$149,720 交易量
No

Ireland
$53,092 交易量
No

Iceland
$49,433 交易量
No

Georgia
$16,352 交易量
No

Finland
$22,602 交易量
No

Lithuania
$34,373 交易量
No

France
$82,899 交易量
No

Sweden
$24,514 交易量
No

United Kingdom
$31,694 交易量
No

Norway
$13,194 交易量
No

Belgium
$32,628 交易量
No

Switzerland
$162,711 交易量
Yes

Australia
$27,442 交易量
No

Poland
$19,421 交易量
No

Armenia
$18,563 交易量
No

Austria
$13,803 交易量
No

Greece
$57,764 交易量
No

Spain
$17,569 交易量
No

Other
$97,780 交易量
No