Traders assign a 98.9% probability to no divorce before 2027 because Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan have maintained a stable marriage since 1987 with no verified public indications of strain. Peng continues to fulfill her role as first lady through joint diplomatic appearances, including the September 2026 U.S. state visit where the couple was photographed together multiple times during arrivals, events, and departures. Chinese leadership norms emphasize family stability and image control, making any public marital change exceptionally rare and subject to internal handling rather than announcement. Credible reporting shows no recent catalysts, while past unverified rumors in 2025 were contradicted by subsequent official state media coverage of Peng’s activities. Only extraordinary developments, such as a confirmed health crisis or unprecedented internal shift, could realistically alter this consensus before the December 2026 resolution window closes.