**Recent US-Iran diplomacy centers on a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached in mid-June 2026.** On June 15, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance digitally signed the MOU alongside Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The document addresses lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60 days of nuclear talks; a formal signing ceremony was set for Friday, June 19, in Geneva. **Vance has led aspects of the talks and publicly detailed the agreement in interviews on June 16, emphasizing no US funds to Iran and IAEA inspectors returning to dismantle enriched uranium stockpiles.** However, the initial signing was virtual/digital, with no confirmed in-person meetings or travel by Vance to Iran or third-party locations involving Iranian officials between June 18–20. Reports focus on ongoing technical negotiations rather than immediate high-level bilateral contact. **With the June 20 deadline only two days away and no verified schedule for Vance to attend the Geneva ceremony or conduct direct diplomacy, traders assess physical contact as unlikely.** The 67.5% implied probability on “No” reflects the compressed timeline, preference for virtual or indirect channels so far, and absence of any reported plans for Vance to shake hands with Iranian representatives before resolution. Late developments, such as an unscheduled appearance or rapid in-person escalation, remain possible but have not materialized in reporting through June 18.