Ukraine has demonstrated repeated capability and intent to strike targets in Moscow through long-range drone campaigns, including a major June 2026 assault on the Kapotnya oil refinery that involved hundreds of drones and prompted airport closures, alongside follow-on attacks in September targeting the capital region. These operations, often framed by Ukrainian officials as responses to Russian strikes on Kyiv and energy infrastructure, form part of a broader effort to degrade Russian logistics and apply pressure amid stalled diplomacy. Russian air defenses have intercepted many incoming systems but have not prevented all impacts or disruptions. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects the established pattern of Ukrainian deep strikes, while longer windows incorporate variables such as escalation risks, fuel supply strains inside Russia, and any shifts in Western support or negotiation timelines that could alter strike frequency.