The Senate’s decision on September 1 to advance a continuing resolution funding government operations through December 11 without including the administration’s supplemental request has sharply reduced prospects for action before the September 30 deadline. The June $87.6 billion package, dominated by $67 billion in Defense Department costs tied to Operation Epic Fury, has drawn bipartisan skepticism, including from Appropriations Committee leaders who cite unspent prior-year balances and fiscal priorities. A summer war-powers resolution further signaled cross-aisle reluctance to authorize additional outlays for the conflict. With the Senate’s remaining calendar constrained and no standalone measure advanced, traders assign a 72 percent probability that at least $20 billion in supplemental war funding will not clear the chamber by the fiscal-year cutoff.