Recent extreme heat, record-setting summer temperatures, and expanding drought across the western and central U.S. have intensified wildfire activity and heat-related losses in 2026, contributing to an elevated pace of billion-dollar events after 12 occurred in the first half of the year. With 2023 holding the record at 28 events, the closely balanced market reflects uncertainty over how many additional severe storms, late-season tropical cyclones, or drought/heat impacts will reach the $1 billion threshold before year-end, particularly as official assessments lag and model guidance on remaining hurricane activity diverges. Traders weigh the climatological drop-off in severe storm frequency after summer against the ongoing wildfire season and potential for high-impact landfalls or widespread flooding. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts, updated Climate Central tallies, and final damage valuations through December will provide the decisive data points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
47% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 30, 2027
47% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 30, 2027
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".Recent extreme heat, record-setting summer temperatures, and expanding drought across the western and central U.S. have intensified wildfire activity and heat-related losses in 2026, contributing to an elevated pace of billion-dollar events after 12 occurred in the first half of the year. With 2023 holding the record at 28 events, the closely balanced market reflects uncertainty over how many additional severe storms, late-season tropical cyclones, or drought/heat impacts will reach the $1 billion threshold before year-end, particularly as official assessments lag and model guidance on remaining hurricane activity diverges. Traders weigh the climatological drop-off in severe storm frequency after summer against the ongoing wildfire season and potential for high-impact landfalls or widespread flooding. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts, updated Climate Central tallies, and final damage valuations through December will provide the decisive data points.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Thị trường mở: Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$41Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".Recent extreme heat, record-setting summer temperatures, and expanding drought across the western and central U.S. have intensified wildfire activity and heat-related losses in 2026, contributing to an elevated pace of billion-dollar events after 12 occurred in the first half of the year. With 2023 holding the record at 28 events, the closely balanced market reflects uncertainty over how many additional severe storms, late-season tropical cyclones, or drought/heat impacts will reach the $1 billion threshold before year-end, particularly as official assessments lag and model guidance on remaining hurricane activity diverges. Traders weigh the climatological drop-off in severe storm frequency after summer against the ongoing wildfire season and potential for high-impact landfalls or widespread flooding. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts, updated Climate Central tallies, and final damage valuations through December will provide the decisive data points.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Khối lượng
$41Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent extreme heat, record-setting summer temperatures, and expanding drought across the western and central U.S. have intensified wildfire activity and heat-related losses in 2026, contributing to an elevated pace of billion-dollar events after 12 occurred in the first half of the year. With 2023 holding the record at 28 events, the closely balanced market reflects uncertainty over how many additional severe storms, late-season tropical cyclones, or drought/heat impacts will reach the $1 billion threshold before year-end, particularly as official assessments lag and model guidance on remaining hurricane activity diverges. Traders weigh the climatological drop-off in severe storm frequency after summer against the ongoing wildfire season and potential for high-impact landfalls or widespread flooding. Upcoming National Hurricane Center forecasts, updated Climate Central tallies, and final damage valuations through December will provide the decisive data points.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp