**Trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability against a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026.** This positioning stems from the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day window—ending in mid-August—for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, and regional issues including Strait of Hormuz access. The process produced no comprehensive agreement, with hostilities resuming, sanctions waivers revoked, and the Strait remaining restricted. In September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council over nuclear non-compliance—the first such referral in two decades—highlighting persistent verification gaps and divisions among permanent members. Ongoing UNSC debates on sanctions snapback and the limited remaining timeframe before year-end further reduce prospects for the required final accord and binding resolution, consistent with the current market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
12% khả năng
$241,051 KL.
$241,051 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
12% khả năng
$241,051 KL.
$241,051 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability against a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026.** This positioning stems from the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day window—ending in mid-August—for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, and regional issues including Strait of Hormuz access. The process produced no comprehensive agreement, with hostilities resuming, sanctions waivers revoked, and the Strait remaining restricted.
In September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council over nuclear non-compliance—the first such referral in two decades—highlighting persistent verification gaps and divisions among permanent members. Ongoing UNSC debates on sanctions snapback and the limited remaining timeframe before year-end further reduce prospects for the required final accord and binding resolution, consistent with the current market pricing.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Khối lượng
$241,051Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability against a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026.** This positioning stems from the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day window—ending in mid-August—for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, and regional issues including Strait of Hormuz access. The process produced no comprehensive agreement, with hostilities resuming, sanctions waivers revoked, and the Strait remaining restricted.
In September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council over nuclear non-compliance—the first such referral in two decades—highlighting persistent verification gaps and divisions among permanent members. Ongoing UNSC debates on sanctions snapback and the limited remaining timeframe before year-end further reduce prospects for the required final accord and binding resolution, consistent with the current market pricing.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$241,051Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus assigns an 88% implied probability against a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026.** This positioning stems from the collapse of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which set a 60-day window—ending in mid-August—for negotiations on nuclear constraints, sanctions relief, and regional issues including Strait of Hormuz access. The process produced no comprehensive agreement, with hostilities resuming, sanctions waivers revoked, and the Strait remaining restricted. In September 2026, the IAEA Board referred Iran to the UN Security Council over nuclear non-compliance—the first such referral in two decades—highlighting persistent verification gaps and divisions among permanent members. Ongoing UNSC debates on sanctions snapback and the limited remaining timeframe before year-end further reduce prospects for the required final accord and binding resolution, consistent with the current market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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