The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience and security apparatus underpin the 98.4% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Assembly of Experts oversaw a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized military command, and contained subsequent protests through arrests and information controls without widespread defections. Ongoing low-level exchanges and economic pressures have not triggered elite fractures or mass unrest capable of toppling the government in the remaining weeks. While a sudden escalation in strikes, leadership crisis, or coordinated internal revolt could theoretically shift outcomes, verifiable developments through mid-August indicate sustained control by the Revolutionary Guards and state institutions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% khả năng
$1,627,330 KL.
$1,627,330 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
2% khả năng
$1,627,330 KL.
$1,627,330 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience and security apparatus underpin the 98.4% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Assembly of Experts oversaw a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized military command, and contained subsequent protests through arrests and information controls without widespread defections. Ongoing low-level exchanges and economic pressures have not triggered elite fractures or mass unrest capable of toppling the government in the remaining weeks. While a sudden escalation in strikes, leadership crisis, or coordinated internal revolt could theoretically shift outcomes, verifiable developments through mid-August indicate sustained control by the Revolutionary Guards and state institutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,627,330Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience and security apparatus underpin the 98.4% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Assembly of Experts oversaw a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized military command, and contained subsequent protests through arrests and information controls without widespread defections. Ongoing low-level exchanges and economic pressures have not triggered elite fractures or mass unrest capable of toppling the government in the remaining weeks. While a sudden escalation in strikes, leadership crisis, or coordinated internal revolt could theoretically shift outcomes, verifiable developments through mid-August indicate sustained control by the Revolutionary Guards and state institutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,627,330Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's institutional resilience and security apparatus underpin the 98.4% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Assembly of Experts oversaw a rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, reorganized military command, and contained subsequent protests through arrests and information controls without widespread defections. Ongoing low-level exchanges and economic pressures have not triggered elite fractures or mass unrest capable of toppling the government in the remaining weeks. While a sudden escalation in strikes, leadership crisis, or coordinated internal revolt could theoretically shift outcomes, verifiable developments through mid-August indicate sustained control by the Revolutionary Guards and state institutions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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