Russia’s ongoing need for additional manpower amid heavy casualties in Ukraine has sustained speculation about mobilization, yet official statements and actions point to continued reliance on contract recruitment, foreign volunteers, and administrative pressure rather than a formal announcement. President Putin and senior officials have repeatedly dismissed reports of a new wave as disinformation, including after the September 2026 State Duma elections when expectations peaked. The Kremlin has expanded the armed forces through modest decrees and intensified registration enforcement while maintaining the 2022 partial mobilization framework without declaring a fresh call-up. These developments explain why prediction markets assign low probability to any public announcement by year-end, reflecting trader assessment that Moscow will prioritize less visible recruitment methods to avoid domestic backlash.