Rebel groups including the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have sustained pressure on Malian forces in the Gao region through coordinated offensives that began in April 2026 and continued with ambushes on army convoys in July. These actions secured control of Kidal and portions of surrounding territory, yet Malian troops backed by Russian Africa Corps retain key strongholds such as the Gao airport and main urban positions. Renewed attacks have produced tactical setbacks for the government without translating into full rebel capture of the city. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5 percent probability against capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of contested but incomplete advances amid ongoing military resistance and logistical constraints for the rebels.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
22% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
22% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Rebel groups including the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have sustained pressure on Malian forces in the Gao region through coordinated offensives that began in April 2026 and continued with ambushes on army convoys in July. These actions secured control of Kidal and portions of surrounding territory, yet Malian troops backed by Russian Africa Corps retain key strongholds such as the Gao airport and main urban positions. Renewed attacks have produced tactical setbacks for the government without translating into full rebel capture of the city. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5 percent probability against capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of contested but incomplete advances amid ongoing military resistance and logistical constraints for the rebels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Thị trường mở: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,204Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Rebel groups including the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have sustained pressure on Malian forces in the Gao region through coordinated offensives that began in April 2026 and continued with ambushes on army convoys in July. These actions secured control of Kidal and portions of surrounding territory, yet Malian troops backed by Russian Africa Corps retain key strongholds such as the Gao airport and main urban positions. Renewed attacks have produced tactical setbacks for the government without translating into full rebel capture of the city. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5 percent probability against capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of contested but incomplete advances amid ongoing military resistance and logistical constraints for the rebels.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Khối lượng
$1,204Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rebel groups including the Azawad Liberation Front and JNIM have sustained pressure on Malian forces in the Gao region through coordinated offensives that began in April 2026 and continued with ambushes on army convoys in July. These actions secured control of Kidal and portions of surrounding territory, yet Malian troops backed by Russian Africa Corps retain key strongholds such as the Gao airport and main urban positions. Renewed attacks have produced tactical setbacks for the government without translating into full rebel capture of the city. Trader consensus reflected in the 77.5 percent probability against capture by year-end aligns with the pattern of contested but incomplete advances amid ongoing military resistance and logistical constraints for the rebels.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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