Recent AI breakthroughs, particularly OpenAI’s September 2026 claim of resolving the Navier-Stokes equations via thousands of autonomous agents and Lean formalization, have sharply lifted trader sentiment around an imminent CMI declaration. The institute’s own September statement acknowledging the problem as “apparently settled” added momentum, yet its deliberately unhurried rules—demanding peer-reviewed publication, broad community acceptance, and at least two years of scrutiny—temper expectations. Only the Poincaré conjecture has cleared this bar historically, and ongoing disputes over credit plus the “active” status on CMI’s site keep near-term odds in check. Key catalysts ahead include community validation timelines and any precursor publications.