US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
$227,270 KL.
$227,270 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
$227,270 KL.
$227,270 KL.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$227,270Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$227,270Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp